Home >

Textile And Garment Industry "Optimistic" Rating

2010/2/11 16:45:00 51

We firmly believe in consumer goods with high growth and strong performance.

clothing

Enterprises are advised to buy when valuations fall.

Exit

Highly correlated

Spin

Industry, we believe that the industry concentration will further improve in the post crisis era. The industry leader will benefit from the expansion of the market share. The upstream and downstream fiber industry has a better supply and demand structure of spandex, and as the demand warms up, the price increase is expected to be clear after the spring Festival.

Spin

clothing

In January, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was 9.5 percentage points.

Among them,

clothing

The sub industry performed best and outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 10.7 percentage points.

We believe that it is mainly affected by two factors.

For the domestic market

brand

clothing

Enterprises in autumn and winter sales situation is good, inventory digestion and clean, so that the market to raise the next quarter.

Order-placing meeting

Growth forecasts and annual profit forecasts; two was last December.

Exit

Data higher than expected, driven

Exit

Related enterprises rose.

The industry boom has increased and revenue profits have gone back to the rise.

Spin

The industry and clothing industry PMI has been on the 50 pass for 6 consecutive months since August 2009, indicating that the industry is expanding.

Spin

The apparel industry bottomed out in the 1 quarter of 2009, and in the second half of 2009, the boom gradually increased, and both revenue and profits began to pick up.

2009 1-11

Spin

The apparel industry's revenue grew by 12%, and the total profit grew by 19%.

Exit

Gradual warming is expected in 2010.

Exit

The increase is between 5-10%.

We believe that China's textile industry is experiencing a "Nike" trademark shape recovery route, that is, the rapid decline and gradual recovery. Although the most difficult time has passed, it is still in a semi recovery state as a whole. It is estimated that the export volume of textile industry will increase by 5-10% in 2010.

After the crisis, orders were concentrated on large enterprises and industry concentration increased.

For the domestic market

To maintain high growth, terminal retail sales are expected to increase by more than 20%.

We believe that in the post crisis era, China is experiencing an economic pformation from exports, investment, consumption to consumption, investment and exports. The original economic growth pattern is difficult to sustain. The government is trying to readjust the pattern of income distribution, improve the consumption capacity of the residents, and continuously boost economic growth by boosting domestic demand.

We expect that retail sales of department stores above the limit will continue to be good for the second half of 2009, and the growth rate will remain above 20% in 2010.

Annual report foresight: we forecast the performance of 15 listed companies in the A share textile and garment industry, with a net profit growth of 27% over the same period in 2009.

For the domestic market

The growth rate of the brand enterprises is higher, and the net profit growth rate is more than 25% of the enterprises: seven wolves (26%), good bird (56%), Dayang creation (107%), YOUNGOR (83%), Luo Lai home textile (30%), fuanna (30%), Pathfinder (68%), Shanghai Jahwa (27%); big Yang Chuang world and YOUNGOR, because of the large stock investment income, the performance growth rate has obviously increased.

Judging from the valuation, the valuation of key companies has tended to be reasonable after the recent stock price fall. In 2010, the average PE had dropped to 25.2 times, and PEG was 0.86, especially the stable growth of brand enterprises.

After market adjustment, the valuation of garment industry has dropped, and the value of long-term investment has gradually emerged.

We are optimistic about the steady growth of consumer company, with the 25-30 times price earnings ratio interval as the valuation center, and insist that the "decline is the opportunity to buy".

From the perspective of PEG and catalyst, it is the first thing to promote American Apparel and Shanghai Jahwa. These two companies are expected to become "great companies".

In addition, the valuation of seven wolves, good news birds and Luo Lai textile also dropped to 23-27 times. The long-term investment value appeared and enjoyed the good effect of the Spring Festival.

Spandex is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and investors on the left can find opportunities to intervene.

At present, there is not much inventory of spandex. We expect that the price will increase by 3000-5000 yuan after the Spring Festival, or 6-9%, but the actual paction price will depend on the demand of the downstream enterprises in the early March. After that, we recommend Huafeng spandex and Yantai spandex.