China'S Exchange Rate Market To Solve The Imbalance Of Economic Structure

< p > despite the existence of time correlation, the explanation of the change presented by the economic circles is still inconsistent.

There is a view that this is a manifestation of global capital returning to the United States. There are also some "conspiracy theories" that may be that overseas capital is shorting China, or that the Chinese monetary authorities are initiatively depreciating to promote exports.

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"P", none of these views is valid.

However, it is an indisputable fact that whether the appreciation of the past or the depreciation of the present, the RMB is indeed moving forward in the direction of market-oriented pricing. This historical trend is irreversible.

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Less than P, after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, China began a period of more than 10 years of export boom.

During this time, not only China's foreign exchange reserves rose exponentially, but economic growth also showed signs of overheating.

According to the theory of international trade and finance, serious trade deficit and high speed economic growth will inevitably lead to the appreciation of the local currency of the economy.

However, due to the incomplete marketization of the RMB exchange rate, the appreciation rate of RMB has not been able to meet the market expectations. Therefore, hot money has continued to flow into China, buying less than a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > RMB assets > /a >. A large number of foreign exchange reserves have also brought the basic money in the sky, causing the sharp rise in asset prices of domestic real estate and so on, and the inflation situation has been very severe.

It can be said that to a certain extent, the imbalance of China's economic structure and various economic difficulties are largely caused by the non marketization of the RMB exchange rate.

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In the face of this predicament, P is not unmoved.

As early as 2005, China had launched the reform of exchange rate marketization, but the bad luck was on the way to reform in accordance with the established rhythm. In 2008, the international financial crisis broke the reform process.

In the next few years, we are almost in the process of repeated economic recession - overheating and recession. Under such conditions, it is undoubtedly very dangerous to accelerate the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.

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"P" may be due to different considerations. In the first quarter of this year, the Yuan's "a" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" devaluation < /a >, which aroused the concern of the United States.

Recently, media reports reported that a senior US Treasury official said that the United States is closely following the Chinese government's stance on exchange rate policy. If the recent devaluation of the renminbi implies that China will deviate from the market exchange rate mechanism, it will trigger the "serious concern" of the US side.

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"P > the US side's remarks clearly misunderstood the recent situation of the" a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" RMB "/a" exchange rate.

The governor of the people's Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan and vice president Yi Gang have expressed their views on the RMB exchange rate on several occasions. The Central Bank of China is gradually reducing its daily intervention in the exchange rate. The recent fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is entirely the result of market judgement. Whether it rises or depreciates in the future, it will become the norm.

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< p > as we all know, the United States and China are the two largest economies in the world today, and the trade share between the United States and China is very important. In the eyes of the Americans, the RMB and the US dollar are directly competitive relations. The depreciation of the RMB will hurt the export competitiveness of American products and increase the trade imbalance between the two countries.

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< p > for this argument, experts say that the current RMB devaluation is mainly based on the concerns of the domestic economic downturn, and the growth of US withdrawal from QE and the increase in interest rate expectations. These factors will gradually resolve as China's economy stabilizes and its QE exit rhythm normalizes.

Moreover, with the advance of China's exchange rate marketization reform, the RMB exchange rate and the two-way volatility become normal, the market will see strange changes in the RMB exchange rate, and overseas worries and attacks will naturally disappear.

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