Russia'S Temporary Export Ban On China'S Influence On China

According to Xinhua news, Russia's prime minister

Although the Russian government's ban market has been speculated, but it has not been reflected in the expectation, the price of wheat futures has risen sharply, and Chicago's wheat futures have been trading at a record high for 23 months. Corn has been used as a substitute for wheat. The soaring price of wheat has rapidly increased the demand for corn. The strong rise in the price of corn followed the strong trend of the wheat market in the past 7 months.

The market is worried about the possible impact of global food supply and food prices. The analysis suggests that this will cause enormous pressure on the international food supply, and the international grain price will rise again.

Since June 2010, there has been a continuous high temperature and dry weather in some parts of Russia.

As of 5 days, drought has been reported in 28 regions, and 7 areas have declared a state of emergency due to the raging forest fire. The fire has also destroyed part of the farmland, resulting in an increase in the yield reduction trend of Russian food crops, especially wheat crops.

In explaining the reason for signing the order, Putin said that due to the recent abnormal high temperature and drought in Russia, the temporary prohibition of the export of grain and grain products is "reasonable", because we must curb the rise in grain prices in Russia and ensure the stock of livestock, so as to establish grain reserves for next year.

International influence of Russian grain ban

Russia is the world's third largest wheat exporter, exporting 21 million 400 thousand tons of grain last year, but it is understood that because of drought this year, Russia's grain output has shrunk by about 20% compared with last year, leading to a nearly 7 rise in wheat prices in early June.

The Russian government has issued a ban on grain exports, which Egypt is the first to bear. Egypt, as a major importer of grain, relies heavily on Russian wheat.

The influence of Russia's grain ban on China

According to the analysis of relevant experts, as China's wheat and corn imports are less than one percent, the Russian declaration of a ban on grain exports has a certain impact on our country, but little impact.

According to customs statistics, in recent years, the main source countries of Wheat Import in China are Australia, the United States and Canada.

According to statistics from the Ministry of agriculture, the import volume of corn in China is 88 thousand tons this year, and the import volume of wheat is 845 thousand tons. In the 1~6 months, the annual output of corn in China is over 1.5 million tons, and the output of wheat is over 1 billion tons. The import volume of both crops is less than one percent.

China's three main staples are basically self-sufficient and have little dependence on foreign countries. Therefore, the impact of the international market on the domestic market comes mainly from factors such as price pmission, rising expectations and chain reaction of capital market.

Global food supply situation

From a global perspective, wheat production in the United States has been strong, and global wheat reserves are higher than those when wheat prices soared in 2008.

Wang Danna, a commodities analyst at www.netsun.com, predicted that the current situation did not look as grim as in 2008. However, grain production in countries such as Kazakhstan and Ukraine, especially in Ukraine, has recently cancelled a number of single wheat export contracts, which exacerbated the market's worries over wheat supply and other wheat supplies, which may push wheat prices to record levels.