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Forward Looking Prospects For Textile And Apparel Listed Companies In The Two Quarter Of 2010

2010/8/9 14:01:00 48

On August, the heat is not just the weather, but also the boiling.

capital market

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The end of this month will be the deadline for the performance of major enterprises. The industry sales rebound in 2010 has brought benefits to enterprises, and has become the biggest bright spot that many people are looking forward to.

Before the announcement of the China Daily, many large enterprises have eagerly released their expectations, hoping to share the joy of the first half of the year with the shareholders.

As of the day of the press release, many textile and garment enterprises did not publish the expectations of Chinese newspapers as other industries. However, many securities investment institutions have already been able to analyze the profits of key companies of textile and clothing from top to bottom, and have launched a "brilliant and colorful" performance outlook for the public.

Color spinning (earnings per share, 0.7 yuan, growth rate 95%), with a growth rate of around 50%, including Roy home textiles (earnings per share of 0.54 yuan, growth rate 49%), rich Anna (earnings per share 0.37 yuan, growth rate 47%), Meng Jie home textiles (earnings per share 0.52 yuan, growth rate 53%), growth rate between 30%-40% companies has reported birds (EPS per 0.19 yuan, growth rate 0.19), seven wolves (earnings per share yuan yuan, growth rate), Weixing share (earnings per share yuan yuan, growth rate); the growth rate of 20%-30% in the company has joint stock (earnings per share yuan yuan, growth rate), Lutai A (earnings per share yuan yuan, growth rate), Pathfinder (earnings per share yuan yuan, growth rate). Shenyang Wanguo Securities listed the data in its earnings growth forecast, which is expected to increase by nearly 100%.

Shenyang Wanguo Securities analyst Zhao Jinhou gives the analysis:

Textile and clothing

Growth in the first half is relatively fast, but the growth rate will slow down in the second half.

In the forecast of Shenyang Wanguo to the key companies covered by the textile and garment industry, 80% of the company's net profit increased by more than 20%, and 60% of the company's net profit grew by more than 30%.

It is estimated that the net profit of key textile and garment companies in the first half of 2010 increased by 38% over the same period last year, and the growth rate is still relatively fast.

If quarterly, the first quarter year-on-year growth of 47%, the median growth rate is expected to be 38%, the annual growth rate is expected to be 33%, as the second half of 2009 consumption began to pick up, so there is a rebound in the base factor in the second half of 2010, the industry growth will slow down.

As we all know, in the second quarter of this year, the market has been in a deep adjustment, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 23.8%, Shenzhen composite index fell 26%, the textile sector index also fell 21.6%, less than the market.

However, many high quality enterprises are still on the rise. For example, the restructured stock, Tianshan textile, has been most popular for asset restructuring, while other high quality enterprises such as seven wolves, Luo Lai, fuanna and news birds are also on the rise.

It is not hard to see that in the adjusted market, companies with sustained growth and good quality are still worth the favor.

So what kind of achievements have these high quality enterprises made in the industry so that people in the industry generally recognize it?

Brightest: Weixing shares, Luo Lai home textiles, fuanna, Meng Jie home textiles

Main clothing

Excipient industry

Weixing shares is a big bright spot.

State securities also believes that sales of about 60% of its sales benefit from large and medium-sized brand clothing enterprises such as the wedding bird, the United States and the seven wolves, and the perfect combination of sales, R & D and production, and the highest level of internal management and operation.

Meanwhile, China Merchants Securities also valued Weixing shares and believed that its orders were strong enough to restore prices.

Because the company's customers are domestic textile and garment retail industry, they have certain bargaining power, and the risk of performance growth is relatively low.

Shenyang Wanguo Securities also estimated that the growth rate of Weixing shares was about 31%, while China Merchants Securities also believed that if the Weixin share's button production capacity could start a new expansion plan, then it could bring more rapid and sustained growth.

Therefore, insiders predict that Weixing shares will continue to grow at a rate of around 20% in the future.

And Luo Lai, Fu Anna, Meng Jie three home textile brands also share the market feast in the capital market, laughing to see the surging clouds.

Nowadays, the home textile market is developing rapidly, and the market focus is gradually changing to the daily consumption direction of residents. Although the three home textile brands are not as good as the seven wolves, the competition in the home textile market is also weaker than that in casual wear. The first and the channel advantages are more obvious. From the data given by Shenyin world, it can be seen that the growth rate of the three brands is at 50%, and the China Merchants Securities Industry also believes that the three major home textile brands are gradually recovering after the crisis. At the same time, the demand for home textile market is restored, and the sales performance is gratifying.

The industry also expects future performance to grow at around 30%.

The most stable: seven wolves, good news birds

The rapid development of casual wear market is one of the reasons for the growth of the seven wolf's stock index. The State Securities believes that the seven wolves are the founders and leaders of the domestic leisure wear brand management mode, that is, the marketing mode of "franchising + franchised stores + flexible marketing + popular marketable products". The brand management level is second to none in China. We can see that the forecast data of Shenyin Wanguo Securities also indicate that the growth rate of the seven wolves is 35%. Meanwhile, China Merchants Securities also believes that the terminal demand of the seven wolves has maintained a trend of recovery, and that the sales of summer clothing have improved over spring clothes, so the growth rate is higher in the middle of the year.

Analysis of the industry, the future performance of the seven wolves will probably continue to grow at a rate of about 30%.

The growth rate of the main business suit is relatively high because of the steady development of the Western clothing industry this year. The company is also the leading brand of the domestic suit brand. The brand management strategy is in line with the development of Western-style clothes and business men's clothing. At the same time, due to the steady promotion of the brand of Saint Angelo, the industry expects that mid long term performance may grow at a rate of 20%.

Most controversial: Smith Barney fashion, Saturday

In the data given by the Shenyin Wanguo Securities Company, it is predicted that the US state clothing (0.07 yuan per share, 70% per share), is a "chicken independence" in many of the brands that are expected to rise sharply.

Such a decline is due to the fact that the cost of large expenditures in the early stage of the United States costumes has not yet been effective, and the greater cost pressures still impede profit growth. However, China Merchants Securities has given different expectations.

China Merchants Securities also believes that the United States brand through a series of more effective ways, such as theme products to ensure the rapid growth of Direct stores, joining the market continues to recover under all support.

On Saturday, in the expectation of Shenyang Wanguo Securities Company, it was considered only (earnings per share 0.2 yuan, growth rate 4%).

Because the income tax rate increased from 12.5% to 25% on Saturday, while the discount rate of the two quarter of women's shoes industry was higher, and the company's marketing expenses had been raised. Especially in June, the activity cost of the signing spokesperson was one-time amortized, which brought a certain pressure to net profit growth, so the increase would not be too great.

And China Merchants Securities believes that the growth rate will be faster on Saturday, with an increase of about 30%.

China Merchants Securities believes that because of the improvement of the quality of shoemaking stores on Saturday, and the implementation of the pushing strategy, the income will maintain a relatively fast growth; the state securities company gives a more neutral analysis. It believes that the footwear market competition on Saturday is weaker than that of casual wear, but the leading enterprises have the advantages of first and channel, but there is no significant change in home textiles such as the overall development. The growth rate may not be as good as home textiles. The company's future performance highlights come from new brands such as Sophia and Faye Polly M, but the new brand performance still needs time to test.