In The Short Run, &Nbsp Will Be Lost, And Cotton Will Record Again With The Market.

First, futures market review

　　 Zheng cotton The main 09 contract opened at 26590 yuan, closing at 27570 points, up 3.72%. The turnover was 1519192 hands, and the positions increased by 14258 to 227698.

Two. Analysis of important factors

Message: according to Washington December 10th, the USDA report released in December on December 10th showed that the US cotton inventory at the end of the year 2010/11 was estimated at 1 million 900 thousand packages, with an estimated 2 million 200 thousand packages in November. Us 2009/10 year cotton At the end of the year, the inventory was estimated at 2 million 950 thousand bales.

External news: US cotton March contract closed 136.70 cents / pound, up 0.55%. Cotton futures closed higher on Friday as the US Department of agriculture's report on crop supply highlighted the tight supply of cotton and investors bought cotton futures in moderate trading.

Domestic spot market: in December 13th, China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) was 26873, up 70 points. The current price difference relative to the closing price of the 1101 contract is -1522 yuan. In December 13th, China's cotton import price index (FC Index M) was 168.59, up 1.13. The import cost is 28405 yuan / ton at 1% customs duty, and 28770 yuan per ton according to the sliding price.

Matchmaking deals: December 13th, the whole country Cotton trading market The electronic matchmaking trade of commodity cotton reached 18680 tons, an increase of 8440 tons compared with the previous trading day, an increase of 320 tons of orders, and a total purchase order of 81880 tons. Today, the market is going up and down. MA1101 average price of 27197 yuan, up 110 yuan. MA1105 average price of 27066 yuan, up 348 yuan.

Main trend: according to the top ten positions, Zheng cotton's total contract ranks more than 10 to 963 hands to 72442 hands today, with short hand to 407 hands to 68818 hands. Net more than 3624 hands. Today, the main force has changed little and is relatively cautious.

Warehouse receipt change: today Zhengzhou No. 1 cotton warehouse receipt is 95, with an effective forecast of 74.

Three. Technical analysis

Cotton 09 contract: today hit a recent rebound in the new high. The highest point is 27700, the lowest point is 26510. Technical indicators, RSI and KDJ upward; MACD uplink, today's golden fork, appear red pillar. Today, cotton rebound is more vigorous, and it is expected to challenge 28000 important points in the near future.

Four, investment proposals

Today, cotton has rebounded in the general market. In the short term, there is not much increase in holdings. In addition, yarn prices continue to be weak callbacks, inhibiting the rise of cotton. According to the latest US Department of agriculture's monthly supply and demand report, it has once again lowered global consumption, but has also lowered the US stock. Cotton consumption is expected to be suppressed under the record high cotton price. But in the short term, under the action of inertia, cotton price is expected to challenge the 28000 point again. On the operation, 09 Zheng cotton short lines are more carefully held.