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At The Beginning Of Next Year, The Market Will Improve Or The Stock Market Will Continue To Shake.

2011/9/21 15:34:00 37

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In recent years, the stock market's "ups and down" has made the market popular.

Dispirited

Trading volume has continued to shrink, and investors' confidence has been constantly buffeted.

However, the continued decline in the A share market has not stopped the pace of IPO.

According to statistics, 218 new shares have been issued this year.

financing

With an amount of more than 200 billion yuan, IPO has been maintained at 20 monthly level; the issuance of rights issuance has been maintained at around 15 per month, with an additional amount of more than 300 billion yuan.

In the face of declining market sentiment, the issuance of new shares has tightened the already weak A share market supply.

Internal and external factors

superposition

Test the market

Analysis of the reasons for the continued weakening of the A share market, said Dong Dengxin, director of the financial and Securities Research Institute of Wuhan University of Science and Technology.

Judging from the domestic economic situation, China's current macroeconomic situation is not very good. Last year, the GDP data was revised to 10.4% growth rate, much higher than the market expectations, and this year's data will also have a marked decline, so for the cyclical plate this year.

profit

It is difficult to achieve the level of last year.

He Qiang, director of the securities and Futures Research Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics, also said that the situation leading to the continued decline of the A share market is mainly due to high prices. Therefore, monetary policy is unlikely to change in the short term, and tightening monetary policy will also have an impact on the stock market.

In addition, Dong Dengxin is more worried about the influence of external factors.

He said that the debt crisis in Europe and the United States will make China's exports shrink further, and the surplus will be narrower than expected. This will have a greater impact on China's export oriented enterprises, and also reflects the adjustment of China's industrial structure.

Eyebrows

。

The key to future trend is monetary policy.

At present, the stock market is still in a weak period of shock. Borrowing a word from Mr Ho, it is unlikely that there will be a big market to support the rise of the stock market.

But many experts in the industry are still optimistic about the development of the future market.

Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the Institute of Finance and securities of Renmin University of China, boldly predicted: "in the next 10 years, the Shanghai Composite Index will return to 6000 points without problems, and the B-share era will end."

He Qiang stressed that the future trend of A shares depends on whether monetary policy is adjusted. The premise of monetary policy adjustment is whether prices are showing a downward trend. Only when the situation continues to decline, will monetary policy be adjusted.

He believes that even now we should not panic even if we fall, because opportunities are falling, but falling further is not the 1600 point of the 2008 financial crisis.

He Qiang said that A shares have strong support at 2000 points, 2200 points and 2319 points, and the current economic situation in China and the world is not as bad as that in the second half of 2008. Therefore, A shares will not fall indefinitely.

Dong Dengxin also said that the A share index is still in a safe range, and the stock market's choice to go out of a huge arc bottom is an ideal choice.

In his view, the 2245 point is a low point of shock, from the current situation, if the policy remains relatively neutral, no longer continue to tighten policy, the probability of a better market in the future, then the 2245 factors are still very strong.

And it is also predicted that the weak shocks of A shares will last for a long time, and expect that things will improve at the beginning of next year.