Peripheral Markets Are Losing Money And Cotton Space Is Limited.

Despite the periphery

On the news, Moodie Investors Service Inc lowered the rating of eight Greek banks by two on Friday, on the grounds that these banks could suffer losses due to the holdings of Greek government bonds.

This exacerbated the market's fears about the impact of the Greek recession on its own banking sector, and increased concerns about the fragile liquidity and financing situation of Greek banks.

ICE cotton continued to decline, the new domestic flower gradually

The Brazil cotton growers association has revised the total forecast of 2010/11 in Brazil to 1 million 950 thousand tons. In addition, it is predicted that the new flower planting area will increase in 2011/12, and the new cotton planting area will be planted in the main cotton producing areas of Brazil at the end of the year.

Cotton picking in Argentina has ended in 2010/11, and the new flower planting is expected to start in mid October.

According to the US Department of agriculture, 9.23-9.29 week AWP (adjusted world average price) was 96.71 cents / pound, down 3.86 cents / pound compared to the previous week, and 0 when the week was LDP (not subsidized by loans).

[current offer]

US cotton: the US cotton main force closed at 101.24 cents / pound, up 1.95 cents / pound, or 1.96%.

Zheng cotton: Zheng cotton main contract 1205 contract 20725 yuan / ton, down 625 yuan / ton, or 2.93%.

Cotton prices continued to rise slightly on Friday.

As of September 23rd, China's cotton price index (CC Index 328) closed at 19995 yuan / ton, up 46 yuan / ton compared with the previous day.

In terms of external cotton, China's cotton import index (FC Index M) closed at 119.16 cents / pound, and the discount tax is about 19842 yuan / ton, which is worse than the same grade real estate cotton price for -153 yuan / ton.

As of Friday, the purchase price of seed cotton in the main cotton producing area of China was 4.1-4.5 yuan / Jin, but there was no change last week.

In addition, the sale of new cotton was still flat last week, and the cotton mill and cotton growers were still in a stalemate, and there was no deal in the purchase and storage (the daily plan was 24 thousand and 300 tons).

The whole cotton yarn market has been steadily rising. At the same time, the textile business has improved and the yarn stock has been gradually reduced.

On the whole, the overall performance of the cotton textile industry chain this week is still calm, and the yarn has signs of moving sales, but the demand for the middle and lower reaches of grey fabrics and home textiles, clothing and so on is still not strong.

In addition, from the perspective of capital side, the two sides are in a state of equilibrium for a while, and neither of the two has the desire to take the initiative to attack, so the general trend of commodities will have a great influence on the trend of Zheng cotton.

Obviously, the panic and pessimism in the commodity market are not conducive to Zheng cotton's rise.

[technical analysis and operational recommendations]

Last week, worries about the slowdown in economic growth in Europe and the West as well as in the new economy, including China, led to a sharp fall in global commodity and futures markets, and some commodities fell to a one year low last week.

The US dollar index hit a new high, closing at 78.30 last week.

At present, the target position of technical analysis is 77.5 near the former high 80.

In the next 1 to two weeks, there will still be some pressure on commodities.

The US cotton 1201 contract rebounded last Friday, closing at 101.24.

But the empty arrangement is obvious, the overall volume of the week down, down the breakdown of multiple moving average, to maintain a weak pattern, in the external market did not stabilize, it may drop again near the bottom of the early 95.

Zheng cotton 1205 contract, on Friday morning in the 21000 integer position for competition, along with the afternoon opening commodity commodity diving, all the way down, the lowest to 20555, last week volume further atrophy, position reduced 100 thousand hands.

As spot prices are steadily improving, this week is expected to reach a 20000 digit mark again. Meanwhile, the cotton futures contract will soon reach a 20000 integer pass. At this integer juncture, there will be a certain period of resonance. The short term sharp fall is limited, and the overall arrangement of the main contract is currently in short order. If the market is in order, the low point will be tested this week, and the interval will be further reduced to 20300 to 21000.

Operation suggestion:

Within the short line, it can defend 20340 before buying, backed by 21000.

Short selling short positions will gradually decrease as time goes on, opening up concerns 20700 frontline competition.