Analysis Of Cotton Price Trend In China
Because of the overall downturn of the textile industry, from cotton enterprises to spinning enterprises, they are affected by a large number of stocks and lose their business.
demand
As a result, cotton quality is low and cotton prices continue to fall.
Insiders have suggested that even if there is a national reserve price protection, the cotton in the early harvest will also generate losses, so it will become a loss.
decrement
Buy.
In 2012/13, the global cotton planting area will be reduced by 8% to 33 million 300 thousand hectares, and output will be reduced by 6% to 25 million 100 thousand tons.
Futures traders believe that the volume of international cotton trade in the new year is expected to drop to 7 million tons, but that of the US, India and other exporting countries
Trade
The volume will not be reduced.
There may be structural tension in cotton in mainland China after the next year, and cotton will be the main supply.
The price of seed cotton continues to decline this year, and Zheng Yujie, a researcher of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fisheries of China investment consulting group, said: "cotton prices are still in a weak position."
In November 30th, the national cotton monitoring price index was 19054 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, or 0.08%, down 88 yuan / ton compared with the previous week, or 0.46%, lower than the national temporary purchase and storage price of 746 yuan / ton.
Cotton futures are also abandoned by speculators as low as cotton prices.
Since hitting a record high of 2.197 US dollars per pound in March this year, or about 4.84 US dollars per kilogram, cotton futures prices have fallen by 58%, as investors speculate that the prevailing prices will lead to demand constraints and supply growth.
The output of cotton from Australia, China and India not only offset the decline in US production, but also exceeded it.
"Cotton prices are still lingering at a low price in the short term, but because of the sharp fall in cotton prices, the cotton producers' enthusiasm for production has been severely disrupted, and many cotton growers have turned to other crops or greatly reduced their planting area. This will inevitably affect the market supply, and the impact of the European debt crisis on the economy will gradually weaken, or demand will rebound. In the long run, cotton prices will rebound."
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