Donghai Securities Bao Qing: CPI Fell Sharply &Nbsp, Policy Space Increased

In March 9th, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that in February, the national consumer price level (CPI) rose 3.2% compared with the same period last year, and the producer price (PPI) of the national industrial producer was unchanged from the same month last year, rising by 0.1%. Bao Qing, director of the East China Sea Securities Research Institute, said that the short-term CPI, especially the expected decline in the prices of agricultural products, may bring more room for maneuver to the policy.

Bao Qing pointed out that in February, CPI fell sharply to 3.2%, down 0.1% from the same period last year, continuing the downward trend. Taking into account the early spring festival, comparing the average situation of CPI ring in 1 and February, we found that mean value It was 0.7%, significantly lower than the average level of 0.9% in previous years. This shows that although there are still some inflationary pressures in the short term, it continues to decrease.

He believes that in February, CPI was 0.2 percentage points lower than the market consensus. This part of the market is lower than expected, mainly from the sharp decline in food prices. In February, the price of foodstuffs was 6.2% compared to the same period last year, rising by 1.7%. The level of the ring has dropped to the level of the beginning of the current inflation cycle in October 2010. Judging from the current supply and demand of agricultural products, the price cycle of edible agricultural products has basically ended. It is estimated that CPI will remain at around 3.2% in March. However, we need to be vigilant against the impact of climate anomalies in the 1 quarter of this year and other domestic and foreign factors on grain and livestock prices and even inflation.

Regarding the trend of PPI, Bao Qing pointed out that its ring rebounded slightly, like the expectation of Donghai securities, which rose by 0.1%. The main reason is not because of the increase in demand for enterprises, but rather from overseas crude oil and other commodities. Price The rise: the rise in fuel and power prices in PPIRM and the chain ratio of PPI in mining and raw materials can confirm this. At present, enterprises still need to go through a proactive inventory process. Therefore, the main driving force for pushing up PPI in the medium term should still come from overseas bulk fuels and raw material prices. In the short term, it may be impacted by centralized construction in spring. It is estimated that PPI will continue to pick up about 0.1 percentage points in March.

Bao Qing said, Short-term CPI, especially the over expected decline in the prices of agricultural products, may bring more room for maneuver to the policy. If other major overseas economies do not continue to introduce big easing monetary policy, the price of crude oil and other major raw materials will have to be limited in the future. If so, the pace of monetary policy pushing liquidity closer to neutral may accelerate moderately, and the process of water and electricity price reform may also accelerate. However, in the light of short-term fuel and raw material prices and resource tax reform, the reform of resource prices may be directly promoted.