The Cotton Market Is Hard To Break 80.00-82.00 Cents In The Near Future

New York futures – strong grain prices and weak dollar this week stimulate speculators to enter Cotton futures Market. It seems that the market rose to a new high this week (from the current market trading range) and the main reasons for the improvement of futures cotton and options trading volume.

The next commission report of dealer positions (futures and options) should again show that the overall short position of managed funds will decrease.

Since the beginning of this month, the contract in December 2012 has risen by about 6 cents/pound, but the open position contract of futures cotton has not changed significantly.

The latest cotton to be priced report (August 17) showed that the unpriced bullish buying of contracts in December 2012 decreased by more than 3000 hands. The stronger prices this week should be enough to encourage growers to price contracts.

Technical aspect: The price of cotton market is consolidating the rising trend on Monday and Tuesday. The short-term trend is bullish, with important support at about 75.0 cents. The key support level is 73.50 cents. If these support levels are broken, the current bullish trend will disappear. The market is close to an important resistance range in the medium term. The market has more upside potential, but in the foreseeable future, the market is unlikely to break 80.00-82.00 cents.

The United States – There is more rain on purpose in western Texas, and it will rain again in the next few days. The temperature is closer to the seasonal temperature. Texas, as in previous years, is a wild card of American production. Non official agencies estimate that the state's production is far below the USDA's forecast. If the unofficial forecast is correct, then the US Department of Agriculture's forecast of US production may decrease by 1 million bales. There is still quite a lot of time before the end of cotton picking in Texas. However, if the current weather pattern continues to develop, the output of Texas may be close to the current estimates of the United States Department of Agriculture.

India - The cotton advisory committee released the latest cotton production estimate for 2011-12 on August 23. The ending inventory was adjusted from 2.51 million bales to 2.84 million bales, because the open inventory, imports and output increased. 2011-12 exit It is expected to be 12.7 million packages, and the import will be increased from 600000 packages to 1.2 million packages. The Ministry of Agriculture of India reported that as of August 16, the cotton planting area of India in 2012-13 was 11.02 million hectares, compared with 11.68 million hectares last year.

China - This week, the market of Zhengshang Exchange tried to break through the recent trading range, hitting a three-month high of 19 '765 (January 2013 contract). However, the price failed to break through the 19650 support level, and soon fell back. At the end of the week, it only closed up 50 points. The market rebounded briefly, the volume of trading was small, and the open positions continued to decrease. The outlook for the main bearish trend remained unchanged. It is rumored that an additional processing import quota was issued this week to alleviate some difficulties of textile enterprises. Therefore, market inquiries have increased, but the actual business is still weak, because the textile factory's pricing target is 2.00-3.00 cents/pound lower than the current quotation. In the domestic market, ginning plants are taking part in the training course of reserve cotton auction to prepare for the acquisition of new reserve cotton, which officially started on September 1. After the CCI328 price is lower than the reserve purchase price for five consecutive days, the purchase auction will automatically start. Therefore, the actual purchase should start at the beginning of the second week of September. The certified inventory of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange continued to decrease, and about 7098 tons were redeemed. This week, Polyester filament The price dropped 200, 32s yarn increased 245, and JC 40s yarn fell 31.