Abducted Renminbi Exchange Rate

P style= "text-align: left" > August 15th afternoon, the inter-bank inquiry market, the US dollar against the RMB spot rate fell sharply, closing at 6.1125, breaking through the previous low of 6.1143.

This marks the close to the 6.11 threshold of the RMB against the US dollar, < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.as" > /a > foreign exchange earning a new high.

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On the same day, the US dollar reported 6.1696 yuan against the central parity of RMB, down 24 basis points from yesterday's P.

Since June 17th, the central parity price of the yuan has reached a new high of 6.1590. After that, the new round of offensive may be launched again after nearly two months of consolidation.

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< p > for the sharp appreciation of the RMB since the beginning of this year, the economic observer is puzzled: in China, the growth of the macro-economy is going down, the asset bubble is bursting, the debt crisis is serious, and when the overseas investment banks and economic observers are singing the Chinese economy, the RMB exchange rate will not rise and fall. Why? Why? /p

< p > the beginning of the beginning of this year, < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > RMB appreciation > /a >, many people suspect that the central bank is carrying on.

They believe that the recovery of the US economy is very strong, and that the US Federal Reserve will withdraw from the QE at close range. The US dollar is bound to take a new upward trend. As a result of the gradual appreciation of the RMB, a large number of hot money that has entered China in recent years will be evacuated at this time, which will cause a devastating blow to China's bubble asset prices, mainly real estate prices, and the real estate market is related to China's financial system, currency issuance and local fiscal revenue and expenditure.

Therefore, the Chinese government will never sit down to see the withdrawal of hot money and will take certain measures to stabilize the situation.

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< p > so it is speculated that it is the illusion that the central bank has maintained a strong Renminbi in the market in order to stabilize the asset prices, that is to say, throwing the dollar in its hands and buying the renminbi, and this argument has been corroborated by the continuous decline of the RMB in November 2011. For example, in November 30, 2011, the central price of the renminbi rose more than 100 points in the morning, leading to a continuous rise, but in the afternoon it fell down under the heavy purchase of foreign exchange, and the market suddenly hit the limit price of 6.3799.

At the close, the US dollar inquiry system closed at 6.3793, up 20 points from the previous session.

This is a rare market change since the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005.

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From P until December 15th, the spot exchange rate of US dollar against RMB reached a limit for 12 consecutive days, and the financial market was in an uproar.

On the 15 day, when the renminbi reached the limit again in the middle of the market, suddenly a large amount of US dollar sell-off was poured out of the state-owned banks in China.

Market participants believe that this is the central bank's reluctance to see the renminbi continue to decline, and to sell the US dollar to stabilize the market expectations of the RMB exchange rate.

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The last fact is, P, that the speculation is incorrect. For example, the substantial appreciation of the RMB in the first half of this year is accompanied by a continuous sharp decline in China's macro-economy. The US dollar is also rising. However, we can see that foreign exchange holdings have not dropped significantly, but there has been a huge increase in foreign exchange earnings beyond expectations.

The central bank statistics show that the new foreign exchange accounts for the first five months of this year are 683 billion 660 million yuan, 295 billion 430 million yuan, 236 billion 300 million yuan, 294 billion 350 million yuan and 66 billion 862 million yuan respectively.

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< p > obviously, the final data prove that the central bank did not deliberately carry on the renminbi appreciation, but entered the domestic capital too much, and the renminbi was passive and substantial appreciation.

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< p > by June, foreign exchange accounted for 41 billion 200 million of the negative growth. It was in the early June that the RMB stopped its appreciation for a long period of six months, and the RMB exchange rate began to consolidate.

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< p > it seems that the change of RMB exchange rate mainly depends on the direction of the capital flow in the international market. It is not the central bank's death. Then, in the overall downward trend of China's macro economy, when the Fed's withdrawal from QE is strong, why does the RMB appreciate sharply, not the other way around?

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< p > we carefully observe the operation of China's macro-economy. We will find that the rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate is not determined by China's macroeconomic trend, but depends on the size of the Chinese government's investment and the size of the Chinese government's determination to intervene in the economy.

This is because the 4 trillion big investment in 2009 made foreign funds taste the sweetness.

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＜p＞　　此轮可能即将开始的人民币大幅升值，或与最近政治局会议以及两次国务院常务会议进行的大力度的政府投资有关，有媒体计算仅仅各地即将兴建的城市轨道交通就需要投资四万亿，而中央政府对铁路的投资决心很大，刚刚批准1500亿的铁路债券就是其中最重要的因素，而棚户区改造、城市地下管网建设，污水垃圾处理设施建设等等，所谓“经济建设、人民生活必须的，而又是掣肘中国经济发展的瓶颈问题”是这次投资的重点，因此有人大呼新的“四万亿”又来了，而房地产价格和土地价格的腾飞更是早已有之，因此境外热钱吃定了中国政府必将再次倾其权力进行新一轮投资，这至少在短期来讲对于外资是一个大好机会，怎能错过?于是新一轮资金的入境就是可以预期的了，而于此同时，美联储退出QE由此前的明朗变模糊，美元疲软也是影响因素之一。

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"P" foreign capital is in a downward trend regardless of the macroeconomic situation. In fact, in the past few years, there has been a trace in the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate.

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< p > for example, from May 2012 to October 2012, the RMB has a long devaluation process. At this time, the basic situation of China's macro-economy is seen from PMI. Both the official and HSBC are basically in the process of decline. At this time, foreign investment is not optimistic about China's a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > economic /a >, there are negative growth in foreign exchange occupations for several months, and negative growth occurred in April 2012 and July.

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In the second half of 2012, the main reason for the sharp rise of the RMB was that the government once again opened the investment train. P

The NDRC has released various investment projects continuously, mainly in the urban rail pit of local cities. In particular, a number of local governments have launched trillions of investment plans continuously, and the economic data in the latter half of last year have changed. No matter the official or HSBC's PMI has seen a sharp rise in the latter half of the year, the central bank has continuously reduced interest rates for two consecutive times, and the stock market has responded to the color of the stock market, which has surged sharply in the cyclical industry dominated by commerce.

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< p > in fact, under the current situation of China's economic development, the RMB exchange rate has basically reached the equilibrium level. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is more harmful than the disadvantages. The appreciation of the exchange rate not only makes the coastal small and medium-sized private enterprises mainly export, but also closes and closes, and the exchange rate deviates from the macroeconomic fundamentals of China. When the economy finally hits the bottom, a large number of foreign capital outflows will further damage the overall economy.

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"P". Therefore, the central bank is passive. In order to maintain the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, only the big hands buy the US dollar and put the RMB into the market, which results in the excessive funds of the market and disrupts the purpose of the central bank's macro-control. Last year and the first half of last year, the shadow banking industry was booming, which led to the 6 month's shortage.

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The Chinese government has to continue to implement a policy of massive stimulus to maintain social stability. Foreign capital is precisely the Chinese government's psychology that is bound to invest in the chariot of the Chinese government. It is a worry that once the government's ability to stimulate is insufficient, the economic structure will deteriorate. At that time, these funds will no longer fight for P, and the RMB exchange rate will face huge fluctuations.

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