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2013 Textile Industry's "Recuperation Year" Aspirations

2013/8/21 9:34:00 36

Textile Industry Textile Industry Textile Economy Textile Trade

in 2012, the a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile "/a" industry has long been looking forward to 2013 at least a year of recuperation. However, when 2013 was over half of the year, the pressure factors that existed last year did not quit. New problems were emerging. For most of the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile enterprises < /a > especially small and medium-sized enterprises, survival and development could not be difficult, so the stability of all data was also dull under subjective emotions. 
Since P 2013, the international economic environment has been basically stable, slightly improving, but still lower than expected. The global PMI index rose to 54.1 in July, and the global trade index increased by 0.1% and 2.1% in May compared with the same period last year and the end of last year. The US and Japan have been playing a positive role in supporting the macro-economic growth. However, the global economy has not yet effectively broken through the drag factors such as the European economic recession and the boom and downtrend of the emerging economies. The recovery trend is obviously lower than the previous market expectations, and the International Monetary Fund has reduced the forecast of economic growth for three times in 7 months. 
 China's economic growth is bright but hidden. In the first half of this year, China's GDP grew by 7.6%, and successfully kept the growth limit and bottom line. But long accustomed to the fact that the actual growth rate must be higher than the national goal of the sense of joy, suddenly return to reality is inevitable feel lost. Moreover, in addition to the benign slowdown factors such as industrial capacity adjustment and investment return rationality, the growth of retail sales of social consumer goods has slowed down, and the growth rate of urban and rural residents' income has continued to decline. 
 because of the low base in 2012, the "a" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > the textile industry < /a > economic indicators published by the National Bureau of statistics and the Chinese customs is not disheartened. In the first half of 2013, the total revenue and profit of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 13.3% and 16.6% respectively compared with the same period last year. 1~7 month reported that the total export volume of the whole society textile < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing < /a > total exports grew by 12.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was still better than that of the same period last year. However, since April, the three indicators have begun to show signs of slowdown in varying degrees, and the pressure on the industry to synchronize with the external environment is gradually emerging from the coverage of statistical base factors. 
 concern enterprise's personal experience. Over the years, the inertia of production capacity can not stop immediately with the change of macro situation. The market demand is relatively insufficient and the production capacity vacuum area caused by the industrial structure needs to be perfected objectively. The asphyxiation is the profit margin of enterprises. The increasingly high manufacturing cost, policy cost and the cotton dilemma that can not be broken through in the near future make enterprises difficult to hesitate to leave, transfer or stick to it. 
 although knowing that the industry must take a decisive step on the road of readjustment and transformation under the new situation, we must say that the pressure on the external environment is really heavy and the pains of its own transformation are really painful. The financial curve of many excellent companies in the industry is still smiling, and we have to say that the gold content of today's growth is much higher than the first ten years of this century. 
For the rest of the world in the period of P > 2013, the world economy is still on the road of weak recovery. The driving force for accelerating growth is limited and the risk factors are still numerous. But objectively speaking, the main reason for the phasing recovery is still the result of minor repairs and minor repairs at the technical level, which may not be able to really compete with many deep-rooted risks. 
In the second half of the year, the pressure of China's macro-economic operation is still very low. The "policy prescription" of the state attaches importance to the structural improvement of the economy and will not generate a large area of stimulation. The tightening of monetary liquidity dominated by market factors can not lead to stronger incentives for investment and consumption activities. The fundamentals of the domestic demand market are still good and can be expected to improve, but the obvious acceleration of P is likely to fail. 
 it is not hard to imagine that in the second half of the year, the running environment of a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > textile industry < /a > will not be tightened, but it will be difficult to relax. Due to the disappearance of cardinal factors, the economic performance indicators of textile industry in the second half of the year will show a trend of slower growth rate, but the final growth rate will remain above the level of domestic GDP growth. As for enterprises, whether or not they have expectations of external environment, pressure and wandering still exist objectively. Perhaps only by turning the repeated expectations of the external environment into the courage of breaking the boat and reconstructing the whole body, will they not finally disappoint themselves. 
 span lang= "EN-US" lang= "Microsoft";
 international market /p >
 the recovery trend is still stable .
 growth rate is lower than expected 
 the first two quarters of the year, the global GDP growth rate is higher than that of last year's .
 the new orders index is picking up, pulling the total index to a new high of 16 months, 
In the first half of the year P, the US fiscal cliff, which is expected to be deeply worried, has not turned into a real crisis. The territorial disputes between Japan and many other countries have not produced any more substantial impact on the economy. On the contrary, the real estate market in the United States has recovered steadily, and housing related indicators have rebounded across the board. The Japanese Andouble administration's new economic policy has accelerated the rapid growth of exports, and the risk of the financial system has declined. 
 according to the data calculated by the Institute of international finance of the Bank of China, the annualized growth rate of GDP in the first quarter and the two quarter reached 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, higher than the three quarter of last year, indicating a slight improvement in the recovery situation. In July, the global PMI index rose from 51.2 in June to 54.1. The new orders index picked up a 16 month high of the total index, and the limited economic benign cycle effect was evident in the weak recovery situation. 
 International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered global economic outlook three /strong 
 HSBC emerging economies index of prosperity fell below the ups and downs line /p >
 however, the current recovery situation does not seem to satisfy the market. This year, the IMF has cut the global economic outlook three times. The latest forecast in early July has reduced the growth rate of GDP to 3.1% of the previous year, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in January. This is dragged down by the European debt crisis, and the EU economy has been in the 3 quarter of a series of decline. Until July, PMI barely returned to 50. Not only did it show that the problem of its capital level was far from being resolved, but the export of core members such as Germany was getting weaker and weaker. On the other hand, emerging economies have failed to shoulder the heavy responsibilities in the critical period of recovery. They are affected by low external demand and low commodity prices. The economic structure generally faces a lot of pressure from a single emerging economy. The Federal Reserve announced in May that it would withdraw from monetary quantitative easing policy, triggering a large number of international capital outflows from emerging economies and seriously reducing the economy. HSBC's emerging economy boom index EMI7 has fallen below the 50 dividing line. Looking back on the strong growth of previous years, we can not help but feel the frustration of "becoming a small and defeated Xiao Ho". 
 USA and Japan a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > strong > clothing retailing /a > strong > the market did not increase significantly.
 clothing consumption in emerging economies deviates from the macro economy slightly rising > /strong > /p >
"P > is different from the fluctuating situation of the economic macro level. The first half of the international a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com "> textile > /a > appears unusually calm. In the United States and Japan, where the economic macro level is obviously improving, the clothing retail market is not showing a trend of upward trend compared with that of last year; while in the EU which continues to decline, the growth of garment retail is still stable. 
 in fact, this trend reflects the inherent demand characteristics of clothing as a non durable consumer goods. When the income growth slowed down, people preferred to take the lead in compressing demand elasticity and higher durable consumer goods. When the income growth accelerated, people preferred to improve the long suppressed hardware life, so the non durable consumer goods with low demand elasticity had a significantly smaller consumption fluctuation, and the growth trend was lagging behind the characteristics of durable consumer goods. 
 the total export volume of the industry has increased by more than 10% this year, less than /strong > /p >
Behind the growth of there is doubt that there are uncertain non demand factors such as re exports /p >
 only from the fundamentals of the international market, it is indeed difficult to see how the difference between the growth rate of the textile industry's total export volume and the growth rate of last year's annual growth of 10% has been only 3%. 
 but it is not difficult to find out from the structure that the export growth rate of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > cotton product < /a > is generally higher this year. This is the rapid increase of cotton price difference at home and abroad in the first half of last year, causing a negative increase in the export volume of cotton products and the fact that the base of statistics is really low. In the market, the industry's export growth to ASEAN is particularly prominent, which reflects the good development effect of China ASEAN Free Trade Area. On the other hand, the export growth rate of the industry is not corresponding to the economic fundamentals of some ASEAN countries and the ability of consumption reality, and it is also a little worrying whether there are still a small number of uncertain non demand factors, such as re exports, in the export growth of the industry. 
 in the second half of the year, the global economic recovery is difficult to accelerate significantly than in the first half of the year 
 the recent macro downward trend of emerging economies will soon reflect the consumption demand /p >
In the second half of the year, the risks on the macro economic side of P remained high. The most prominent risk factors are whether there is a higher follow-up risk in the European debt crisis, and how deep the international capital outflow is to the emerging economies. 
Although the US and Japan's economy is generally improving, the improvement of the fiscal deficit, the high risk of the financial system and the high unemployment rate are still difficult. The prospect of recovery is not necessarily P. At present, there are no signs of probability in many risk factors. The Federal Reserve has recently announced that it is postponed to withdraw from quantitative easing, which is equivalent to adding a "steady wind" to the macro-economy in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the global economy can still maintain a basically stable trend under the impetus of the US and Japan. But because of the limited driving force, even if no new risks occur, the recovery will not accelerate much faster than in the first half. 
 macro economic stability is sometimes more reflected in the capital market than in the real economy. In the second half of the year, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com > > textiles and garments > /a > international demand is not only difficult to strengthen, but weaker. The United States and Japan are still recovering weakly, and the growth of clothing consumption will not rebound significantly. In recent years, the speed of macroeconomic downturn in emerging economies is so fast that changes in consumer demand will not be reflected in the market for a long time. Because of the ups and downs of emerging economies, it is not clear that the growth rate of consumption is much higher than expected. 
 > strong > RMB exchange rate changed to basically stable two way fluctuation in the second half of the year 
 abolition of industrial products export law inspection and cost reduction trade burden /p >
 the judgement of the state's export situation in the second half of the year is also severe. After the export data were released in June, various trade promotion measures appeared successively. Among them, the RMB exchange rate will continue to rise in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year will be basically stable and two-way fluctuation. The elimination of trade facilitation measures such as industrial products export inspection and cost will help to lighten the burden of export enterprises. 
 this year, the industry still accounts for the loss of international market share /p >
 after removing barriers, the export trend is determined by comprehensive competitiveness .
 however, the current support policy is still protective rather than stimulating. After the policy clears all kinds of obstacles, where the export will go, it will ultimately be determined by the comprehensive competitiveness of the textile industry. This year, affected by factors such as cotton price differentials and manufacturing costs, China's textile industry's share of international market share has not ended. In 1~5 months, China's textile a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > clothing export < /a > accounted for 0.4, 5.1 and 1.6 percentage points less than that of the US, EU and Japan respectively over the same period last year. Although the competitiveness of the industry will not be significantly lost in the second half of the year, the competition pressure can be imagined. 
 span lang= "EN-US" lang= "Microsoft";
 domestic market /p >
 the economy is still in a reasonable interval .
 consumption stimulation is slightly less than 
 the growth rate of domestic GDP has slowed down downward trend .
 in the first half of the year, the 7.6% growth rate excluding policy stimulus is not easy to .
 from the growth curve, the growth rate of domestic GDP has been slowing down recently. In the first half of the year, GDP grew by 7.6%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year and the end of last year. In the two quarter, the growth rate was 7.5%, down 0.2 percentage points compared with the first quarter. Moreover, in addition to the beginning of the financial crisis, the 7.6% growth rate of domestic economy will be traced back to more than 10 years ago. However, the growth rate of 7.6% did not break through the 7.2% lower limit necessary to maintain the scale of social employment, and did not break through the 6.9% bottom line to ensure the completion of the task of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. It is not far fetched to evaluate the growth rate of GDP as a reasonable expectation interval. Moreover, the economic growth in the first half of this year has not been stimulated by excessive policies. The main body is still natural growth under the market role, and the 7.6% level is not easy. 
 regulation of industrial added value dropped 1.2 percentage points year-on-year 
 fixed assets investment fell 0.3 percentage points year-on-year 
Since the beginning of this year, the industry of China has been deeply occupied by capacity readjustment, and the industrial added value of 1~7 has increased by 9.4% over the same period last year, down 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The investment in fixed assets has returned to rationality with the implementation of the real estate policy and industrial adjustment, the investment completion amount has increased by 20.1%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared with that of the previous year, the pressure of export growth has not been reduced, and the export volume has increased by 10.4%, which is still higher than that of the same period last year. However, after the "squeeze water" in May, June and July, the growth rate in three months has dropped to 1%, -3.1% and 5.1%. 
 if these changes are still a benign necessity of economic structural adjustment, then the total retail sales of consumer goods in 1~7 fell by 1.4 percentage points over the same period last year. In the first half of this year, the income of urban and rural residents was affected by the double downward effects of enterprise efficiency and agricultural product prices, and the actual growth rate dropped by 3.2 percentage points over the same period last year. In the moment when GDP growth is increasingly dependent on consumption, such data relations inevitably create worries for the public. 
 the growth rate of urban and rural residents and residents showed a continuous slowing down trend 
 above quota consumption of clothing and domestic consumption growth slowed down at the same time 
 because of the lack of statistical data, the overall picture of clothing consumption in domestic demand since 2013 is still a mystery. From the existing data, the income of urban and rural residents has achieved nominal growth of 9.1% and 11.9% respectively. According to the stage of economic development in China, the conclusion that the total scale of clothing consumption continues to expand is not hard to come out. However, the growth rate of urban and rural residents and residents' income has been slowing down. Does this mean that the growth of consumption of clothing and domestic demand is slowing down at the same time or even accelerating? 
 from the statistical data, it can be concluded that the growth of clothing consumption of large and medium-sized retail stores in the high-end and urban areas has indeed slowed down. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the retail sales of clothing above the national limit > a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > shoes < /a > hat needle retail sales increased by only 11.9% over the same period of 1~7 months, up 5.1 percentage points from the same period last year, which is 6.1 percentage points lower than the end of last year. However, this part of the slowdown in retail growth does not necessarily mean that the corresponding demand growth rate of consumer groups is down. Perhaps the potential consumption of this part of the market has gradually shifted to the emerging channels of e-commerce consumption. 
 at present, about 15% of the clothing demand is achieved through the e-commerce channel .
 rural and low-end mass consumer markets also release positive signals /p >
 rough estimate. At present, more than 15% of domestic clothing demand is achieved through e-commerce channels. In the first half of this year, under the background of slowing down of macro-economic growth and slowing growth of household income, e-commerce consumption is still growing at a high speed. According to Taobao's data, sales of clothing and home textiles products have reached 50%~60% year-on-year growth rate. 
 the market that also releases positive signals is the rural market and the low-end mass consumer market. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of 2013, the retail sales of enterprises below the limit increased by 14.9% over the same period last year, a 0.9 percentage point increase over the same period last year, representing an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the end of last year. As small retail enterprises below the limit are mainly selling, wearing, and daily commodities, the growth rate of below a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > clothing items /a > retail sales should also be increased compared with the same period last year. 
 although the contribution of consumption to economic growth has declined slightly since the beginning of this year, the growth of domestic demand market is still stable only from the aspect of clothing consumption. 
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 in the second half of the year, the objective environment is more conducive to new progress in structural adjustment 
 tax burden will increase the contribution of the third industry to economic growth 
Since P May, China's new foreign exchange holdings have begun to decline rapidly, and the return of international capital to developed countries has led to a tightening of the domestic monetary floating environment in the second half of the year. From the perspective of the two macro-control principles of steady growth and structural adjustment, the objective environment is conducive to new progress in structural adjustment, and the task of achieving steady growth of more than 7.5% is not very easy. 
In the second half of the year P, the adjustment of policies has objective support for stabilizing economic growth. Since August 1st, a small scale taxpayer who does not earn more than 20 thousand yuan in monthly sales income will be exempted from VAT and business tax. It will benefit 6 million small and micro enterprises, which will help to speed up the growth of residents' income and to further promote domestic demand consumption to a certain extent. On the same day, the transportation industry and the national pilot business tax reform of value-added services, such as R & D, logistics and other modern service industries, will help to improve the contribution of the third industry to economic growth. In addition, financial support measures such as shantytowns and railway construction in the central and western regions are more focused on economic structural improvement, but the multiplier effect release still has positive energy for the economy. 
 the interaction between investment growth and rationality and consumption growth is weakened. 
 retail speed increase is limited. The focus is on innovation rather than imitation 
In the past few years, our domestic demand has continued to grow rapidly, which is closely related to the strong driving force of investment growth. P Now the investment growth has returned to reason, and the interaction between consumption growth and consumption has also weakened. In the second half of this year, although regulatory policies have positive support for macroeconomic growth, they lack the driving force of investment growth, and lack of the stimulus effect of monetary stimulus. The growth rate of domestic demand growth is relatively limited in the first half of this year. 
 > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > dress < /a > domestic consumption in the second half of the year is not difficult to get out of the curve of "overall stability". "Small speed increase" can also be expected. But if we are not satisfied with this conclusion, there is no way out. The most direct revelation of the sustained and rapid growth of e-commerce consumption is that innovation is an effective way to stimulate consumers' potential demand. E-commerce has created new channels, new consumption patterns, and even new lifestyles. When the macro environment is cold, consumer sentiment is relatively low, and traditional retail growth is facing pressure, it can still maintain vitality. There are many links in the domestic demand market, including e-commerce, which can enhance innovation. There are still many potentials to stimulate domestic consumption. The key is to really embark on the road of innovation rather than imitation. 
 recruitment and employment dilemma. Industry average wage increase is less than /strong > /p >
 training function input and enterprise culture is strengthened at the right time. /p >
 "the most difficult employment season in history" is the most fashionable topic in 2013. The old proposition of "recruitment difficulty" of textile enterprises is still strong. It continues to interpret the dilemma of recruitment and employment in the context of demographic changes and demographic dividend. 
 recruitment difficulty means that the rise in labor cost determined by the demand side market will not stop. According to the same statistics and survey data of the National Bureau of statistics, it is deduced that the per capita wages of the textile industry will continue to rise by 10%~15% in 2013. Solving the dilemma of recruitment and employment is obviously not the task of the enterprise, but perhaps we can consider whether the employment difficulty itself means resources and opportunities for textile enterprises. For example, in the proper input of training function and rational enhancement of corporate culture, the dilemma between recruitment and employment may be a win-win situation.