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The Central Parity Of RMB Against The US Dollar Has Continued To Fall.

2014/2/22 17:52:00 159

Dollar Exchange Rate RMB Trend Devaluation

China's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > > foreign exchange trading center < /a > latest data show that in February 20th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1146, down 43 basis points from the previous trading day. This is the third consecutive trading day of the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar, which has reached a new low since 2014. 
 in the overseas non deliverable forward (NDF) market and spot market, the decline of RMB also expanded. Analysts believe that the above situation can not explain the trend of RMB depreciation inflection point has arrived. This year, the recovery of developed economies and the steady growth of China's economy will support the value of the RMB, and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will increase under the influence of medium and short term factors. 
Since P entered into February, the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "fed" /a "continued to reduce the scale of QE, triggering an increase in the fluctuation of the currency exchange rate in emerging markets, and bringing certain depreciation expectations to the RMB exchange rate. 
China's foreign trade situation has begun well with the support of RMB P. The recovery of the developed economies since last year, especially the eurozone with the most uncertain debt and the most uncertain recovery, has surprised the market. 
 the four largest economies in the euro zone, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, achieved the first quarter growth since the first quarter of 2013. The combined economic output of these four countries accounted for more than 3/4 of the euro area's total output value. The effectiveness of a series of difficult reforms has begun to emerge. Portugal's economy grew 0.5% in the fourth quarter, for example, for third consecutive quarters. Data released this year show that the euro area is still in the process of recovery. The manufacturing sector purchasing managers index (PMI) of the eurozone in January rose to the highest level since June 2011. 
 in January this year, our country shared a total of US $35 billion 900 million for the United States, Japan and the European Union, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > the trade surplus < /a >, an increase of more than US $5 billion 500 million over the same period last year. Especially after the EU economy ended 6 consecutive quarters of recession in the two quarter of 2013, trade between China and the EU quickly recovered. In January this year, the total import and export volume of China and the EU increased by 17.7% over the same period last year. It is expected that a substantial recovery of the global economy driven by developed countries this year will be conducive to the realization of China's annual growth target of foreign trade. 
 in addition, the appreciation of RMB has shifted from the past trade surplus to capital push. Since the beginning of this year, the inflow of foreign exchange is relatively large, and the capital inflow is still an important reason. Although the Fed has revealed that some officials have proposed raising interest rates, it is too early to raise interest rates from the Fed. The interest rate gap between China and the United States is still attractive to carry interest funds. The opening of financial markets, the development of RMB cross-border payments and the signing of RMB swap agreements have expanded the demand for RMB assets. 
Although P has not yet seen a turning point in the trend of depreciation, the fluctuation is expected to increase this year. The continued cuts in the size of the QE, the turbulence in the emerging markets and the slowdown in China's economy have had an impact on the value of the renminbi. These effects will break the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB, and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will increase in the first half of this year. The promotion of convertibility of capital account will aggravate the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. There is still much room for the maximum volatility of the renminbi in the spot market from the volatility set by the central bank [micro-blog].