RMB Asset Prices Will Face New Challenges.

< p > analysts pointed out that, in the early stage of "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "RMB exchange rate < /a > phase softening and the trend of unilateral appreciation in the future may be obviously reversed, with the short-term market liquidity is facing a certain risk of passive contraction, the pressure of capital outflow appears," a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" RMB "/a" valuation of asset prices will be tested in the coming period.

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P > some agencies point out that the risk of real estate prices is concerned by investors in the context of the falling prices in the near stage and the warming of the RMB softening expectations.

According to the CBRC data, as of the end of 2013, there were 20 banks involved in real estate loans amounting to 20 trillion and 900 billion yuan, accounting for 33% of the balance of banking loans at the end of 2013.

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< p > > 2014 a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > the CBRC < /a > still put the risk of strictly controlling real estate loans in an important position, and require banks to pay close attention to key enterprises and prevent the risk contagion of individual enterprises' capital chain breaking.

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< p > at the same time, combined with iron ore, copper, rebar, coking coal and other commodities and the price of industrial products this year, we have pointed out that the weakening of the RMB exchange rate may bring a continuous negative impact on the prices of related raw materials at the level of financing arbitrage.

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< p > aiming at the price trend of copper and iron ore, Jin Rui futures and other agencies pointed out that for a long time, a large number of imported copper and iron ore were not used for terminal consumption, but used for mortgage financing, locking the lower dollar interest rate, and then converting it into Renminbi, in order to get interest spread and appreciation of the people's currency.

The phasing devaluation of the renminbi and the sharp decline in the appreciation expectation will lead to the weakening of the financing demand for copper and iron ore, resulting in a downward pressure on its price.

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< p > however, it is worth noting that the phasing of the RMB exchange rate and the two-way fluctuation in the medium and long term may bring risks to the market liquidity and asset prices. The agency also believes that the central bank will not hedge the possibility of reducing the deposit reserve ratio in the future.

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< p > Haitong Securities pointed out that from the perspective of monetary policy interpretation since 2008, there is a close correlation between the weakening of the RMB exchange rate and the reduction of the RMB exchange rate. If the RMB exchange rate weakens over a longer period of time, the possibility of the reduction will be significantly improved.

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< p > the people's Bank of China authorized the China foreign exchange trading center to announce that in March 3, 2014, the RMB exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 6.1190, an increase of 24 points over the previous trading day.

At the close, the renminbi was reported at 6.1462 on the spot, 12 points lower than the previous day, and the daily newspaper 6.1450.

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< p > a trader in a listed city firm said, "actually, today's trading is much more calm than before. During the day, although there were two waves of buying foreign exchange buying to push down the exchange rate, there was no big push to buy foreign exchange, and the market itself could not play."

Offshore CNH does not fall or rise, which means that the market itself does not have enough willingness to push down the exchange rate.

For example, today's trend is this situation.

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< p > today, in the early morning, the yuan reached a 6.1590 low intraday low, but it narrowed sharply at the end of the month.

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< p > the latest research report of China Merchants Securities indicates that the difference between spot and offshore CNH is negative, which shows that the price of RMB in offshore market is more expensive.

CNH this week did not continue to depreciate immediately. It may be that the market thinks the future RMB devaluation space is limited, thus increasing the RMB position and restraining the depreciation of CNH.

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< p > the trader also pointed out that since the two sessions have been held, it is estimated that the policy is relatively stable during this period, and that specific policies should also be announced after the two sessions. Therefore, the spot exchange rate may maintain a wide concussion in the 6.14-6.16 interval, and there will be no trend in the direction.

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