National Risk Analysis Report Venezuela

< p > < strong > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > country trade > /a > risk index (ERI):83.6 < /strong > /p >
< p > < strong > national risk reference rating: 8 (8/9) level < /strong > /p >
< p > < strong > national risk Outlook: stability < /strong > < /p >
< p > < strong > Economic and trade risk < /strong > < /p >
Venezuela's economic structure is relatively simple, and economic fluctuations are significantly affected by international oil prices. P Over the years, the government's control over economic activities has been continuously strengthened, which has increased domestic inflation pressure and exchange rate risk to a certain extent. Although there is little pressure on external debt, the growth of public debt deserves attention. Venezuela is one of the richest countries in the world. The oil industry is the lifeblood of Venezuela's national economy, and the structural defects of the single economy are remarkable. Because of the single national economy of "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "Venezuela" /a, the macroeconomic management is out of tune, and the economy has been under heavy pressure of inflation for a long time. To alleviate inflationary pressure, the Venezuelan government decided to reduce a large number of commodity prices since early 2012 to suppress the consumer price index. But there are still many factors driving up prices, such as the government's measures to raise the minimum wage standard, the government's restrictions on foreign exchange market, and the low efficiency of state-owned enterprises. Venezuela's nominal GDP was $382 billion 450 million per capita in 2012 and GDP12957 per capita, while the real economic growth rate was 5.6%. < /p >
< p > < strong > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > bilateral trade < /a > /strong > /p >
In recent years, trade relations between China and Venezuela have developed rapidly, bilateral trade has risen sharply, and the field of economic cooperation has expanded continuously. P Venezuela became the fourth largest trading partner of China in Latin America in 2011. China is the second largest trading partner of Venezuela after the United States. In recent years, the cooperation between China and the Central Committee in the field of energy development has been deepened. However, the bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and Venezuela has the following risks: firstly, the Venezuelan government can not strictly abide by the provisions of the contract, and there is a precedent for unilaterally changing the contents of the contract. Second, Venezuela's foreign exchange control policy is more stringent, making it difficult for Chinese funded enterprises to invest in the US dollar at the official exchange rate when importing products. It is difficult for them to facilitate trade and investment and increase their operating costs. Third, foreign exchange control and exchange rate fluctuations have greatly reduced the willingness to pay and the ability to pay for imported enterprises in Venezuela. < /p >
< p > < strong > business environment < /strong > /p >
Venezuela's nationalization risks are more significant than P. Unofficial data show that over 700 years of government expropriation and nationalization occurred in 2005~2009, of which only 30% of enterprises received full compensation. In addition, Venezuela's overall business environment is poor, corporate credit and public financial information are hard to obtain, lack of power infrastructure, low efficiency of bankruptcy handling, and widespread administrative corruption, low administrative efficiency, low transparency, and bureaucratic prevalence. Venezuela has strict regulations on labour protection, and prohibits enterprises from laying off in various forms. The working hours are not more than 44 hours per week, and the number of employees and the salary of foreign employees are double restrictions. The minimum monthly wage is 476 dollars. In terms of environmental protection, Venezuela has a complete legal framework and channels to solve environmental disputes. In 1999, the Constitution called for a socio economic environmental assessment of all activities that might affect the environment. All the agreements involving natural resources involving the government have mandatory requirements for protecting the environment. < /p >
< p > < strong > total risk assessment < /strong > < /p >
Maduro, who has succeeded in Chavez's political power by a narrow margin, is facing many pressures from corruption inside the party, domestic opposition and endogenetic economy. The parliamentary election in 2015 will be another test of his political ability and the recognition of voters. Although Venezuela's oil reserves are abundant, the infrastructure and efficiency of oil exploitation are not high, coupled with the sharp fluctuations in oil prices, poor economic stability, high exchange rate risk and rapidly rising debt levels. Venezuela's legal and business risks are relatively high. Venezuela's corruption and politicization of the judiciary seriously hamper the country's judicial fairness, and the court's decisions are difficult to enforce. < /p >