The Downward Trend Of Exchange Rate Leads To The Matching Of Overseas Assets.

After the Spring Festival, the RMB exchange rate ushered in the turning point. < p >

Since mid February, especially in March 17th, to expand the floating range of the RMB exchange rate, the renminbi has begun to depreciate, although the rate is not large.

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< p > < strong > the turning point of RMB exchange rate > /strong > /p >

The gradual rise and fall of RMB P is the norm in history.

Over the past 8 years, the unilateral appreciation process of RMB has now come to an end.

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Prior to the merger of the P exchange rate in 1994, the official exchange rate was 1.58 yuan against the US $1 in the initial stage of reform and opening up to 5.80 yuan on the eve of the merger.

After the merger, the RMB exchange rate began to turn stronger. Especially during the Asian financial crisis, China promised that the renminbi would not depreciate and gradually established the international position of RMB's emerging strong currency.

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Since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has risen by 36%, while nominal and real effective exchange rates have appreciated by 32% and 42% respectively. P

Over the past 20 years, the RMB exchange rate has been in the appreciation channel for a long time, giving people a deep impression of a strong currency.

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< p > since the middle of February 2014, the RMB exchange rate has begun to decline.

However, in the first quarter, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar actually dropped by only 0.9%, while the domestic RMB against the US dollar (CNY) fell by 2.6%, while the foreign exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar (i.e. CNH) fell by 2.2%.

This adjustment is not much more than the increase in the past 20 years.

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< p > from the Morgan JP emerging market monetary index, from the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2014 3, the average value of the main emerging market currencies declined by 8.2%, while the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 2.5%, indicating that the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate is very limited.

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< p > it is worth noting that the trend of RMB devaluation actually has a clue since last year.

Although the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar showed an appreciation in 2013, the renminbi depreciated against the US dollar in the forward market, which reflected the real expectation of the RMB interest rate.

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< p >, therefore, there is a certain inflection point for the RMB a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > /a >, but it is hard to say whether the RMB exchange rate will depreciate greatly.

It may be true that the renminbi has only increased the range of fluctuation just as it has been speculated.

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< p > < strong > adjust the thinking to cope with platform stage < /strong > /p >

< p > > when a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB < /a > has ended the stage of unilateral appreciation, every investor must learn to manage exchange rate risk. On the one hand, overseas travel and shopping are becoming more commonplace now, if we can pay in advance or arrange properly, we can minimize our cost.

On the other hand, when the RMB enters the platform period or even has the expectation of depreciation, the prices of all related assets will also change.

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< p > for example, in the past, we often said that the value of RMB assets, especially real estate, will be in sync in the period of appreciation of RMB.

But in the long run, asset value growth brought about by the appreciation of the exchange rate will no longer exist.

Expected changes will also lead to changes in investment ideas.

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< p > holding a portion of US dollar deposits or not rushing to convert US dollars into Renminbi is a good practice.

However, in the current circumstances, US dollar loans may face some risks, such as exchange rate risk.

That is to say, if the depreciation rate of RMB is extended to a certain extent, the loan spreads will be lost if the loan spreads of more than two currencies are exceeded.

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Besides, P can also consider overseas investment properly.

Looking for a suitable market or asset class can not only get a reasonable return, but also gain additional benefits from the increase in exchange rate.

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< p > there are many options for direct investment overseas, such as US stocks, overseas funds and so on. At present, many brokerages, banks and Internet channels can meet this demand.

It can also be realized through the domestic QDII fund.

For example, the real estate industry in the United States is still in the stage of recovery. The related real estate REITs is a good investment variety, which is suitable for investors who want to get a more stable return.

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< p > in addition, it is quite common to manage exchange rate risk with derivative products if there is a large amount of money involved.

At present, there are RMB foreign exchange spot trading, forward, foreign exchange swap, currency swap and foreign exchange options on the market.

More and more enterprises are using these tools to manage exchange rate risk.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp > Foreign Currency Management > /a > rising quietly < /strong > /p >

P, which has not been popular in the past, has attracted much attention.

The announcement of Citigroup (China) and Standard Chartered (China) official website shows that since April, the US dollar fixed rate interest rate has increased by more than 50%.

Citigroup (China) interest rates involve short-term deposits in 3 months and 6 months. The annual interest rates of deposits rise from 0.5% and 0.9% to 1.2% and 1.5% respectively. The deposit amount should exceed 1000 dollars. Standard Chartered (China) needs to open conditional Renminbi and foreign currency deposit accounts simultaneously to enjoy preferential treatment.

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Prior to the middle of March, foreign banks launched the time limit preferential activities for individual foreign currency deposits in the middle of March. The interest rate of US dollar deposit rates in 3 months, 6 months and 13 months increased from 0.6%, 0.95% and 1.5% to 1.9%, 2.2% and 2.7% respectively.

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Compared with P, the interest rate of demand deposits offered by Chinese funded banks is only 0.05%.

At the same time, there is a slight difference in long-term interest rates.

Taking the 1 year US dollar deposit rate as an example, the interest rate given by Chinese banks is between 0.7%~0.8%, and the Construction Bank (601939, stock bar) is 0.8%, and China Merchants Bank (600036, stock bar) is only 0.7%.

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< p > although the interest rate given by foreign banks has gone up, it is still not attractive enough compared with the annualized yield of domestic RMB financial products at 4%~6%.

However, the problem is that as domestic capital relaxes and SHIBOR interest rates continue to fall, the risk-free rate of return may also gradually decline.

Of course, in the future, once the US dollar raises interest rates and the renminbi cuts interest rates, I am afraid the interest rate difference between RMB deposits and US dollar deposits will eventually narrow down in the end.

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