Guo Shiliang: Will The Shanghai And Hong Kong Through The "Open To Traffic" Establish The Medium-Term Top?

Shanghai and Hong Kong pass is an important mechanism for interconnection and exchange between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, which aims to break the capital flow restriction between the two markets and accelerate the process of RMB internationalization.

Obviously, Shanghai and Hong Kong have been placed high expectations by the market.

In the two tier market, Shanghai and Hong Kong through the "opening" is also expected to bring a great boost to the market.

Take the Shanghai Composite Index as an example, since its launch in July this year, the largest increase has reached 25%, and once broke through the 2500 integer pass, becoming one of the most powerful stock markets in the world in recent months.

It is worth mentioning that Shanghai and Hong Kong through the "opening" is expected to form a great stimulus to the brokerage sector.

Taking recent data as an example, since the end of October this year, the largest cumulative increase in the short-term stock market has exceeded 20%, making it one of the most eye-catching hot weight plates in November.

In addition, as a bank and insurance undervalued blue chip, it also has a good performance.

As for the early "A+H" plate that has attracted much attention from the market, it has also seen an ideal rebound in Shanghai and Hong Kong under the stimulus of "open to traffic".

November 17th, that is, Shanghai and Hong Kong through the "opening" of the time.

Before November 15th, the management will still arrange for the clearance test of the Hong Kong stock trading system.

Thus, Shanghai and Hong Kong through the formal "opening" has entered the final countdown stage.

Then, with the official opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, what kind of impact will it bring to the A share market?

According to the general rule, the A share market is keen on the speculation of policy anticipation.

However, when the major good policies came out, it contributed to the medium-term top of the market.

In this regard, there are also many comments about whether the formal opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong will establish the medium-term top of A shares.

It is undeniable that in Shanghai and Hong Kong through the formal "open to traffic" before, the A share market has seen a relatively eye-catching performance, during the period the largest cumulative increase far exceeded the market expectations.

At the same time, part of the undervalued blue chips were also hit by speculation in the market due to the "opening" expectations of Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Obviously, the above phenomenon also confirms the reason why the A share market is keen on speculation.

Throughout the last few

In the A stock market, there has been a clear differentiation market.

Among them, the pattern of "Shanghai strong and deep weak" is quite outstanding.

In addition, while some undervalued blue chips and super weight stocks have risen sharply, many small and medium capitalization stocks, especially those with losses, have fallen.

In other words, the market has gradually changed from the past "82" style to the current "28" style.

Earning the index but not making money will undoubtedly become the worry of many retail investors.

With the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the 2500 mark, the market operation pattern has changed.

Among them,

The cumulative short-term gains are quite alarming, and there are many profitable ones.

At the same time, the 2500 area is the peak area in the past years.

The short-term indicators of the A share market also showed signs of serious overbuying, and there was a strong demand for dressing.

In addition,

The sharp rise in the scale of securities lending is actually a huge risk.

For most speculators, they are more interested in short and medium term operations because of their paction costs, position risks and systemic risks.

As a result, the margin of margin raising to a certain level, or the most dangerous moment in the market.

Obviously, in the above market environment, also for the 17 month of Shanghai and Hong Kong through the formal "opening" brought a lot of worries.

However, the author believes that although there are some adjustment requirements in the short-term market, we find that the corresponding indicators are showing signs of gradual improvement.

At the same time, there are a number of hot weight plates out of the middle and long-term bottom of the pattern, the overall operation of the trend has changed.

This has also brought favorable support to the medium and long term trend of the market.

It should be noted that at the end of the year, some stocks that are suspended from listing or delisting risks need to be extra cautious.

On the one hand, the new delisting system is about to come into operation, and the risk of such risky stocks has suddenly increased.

Combined with the registration system at the end of the year, the "shell value" of stocks with such risks will also be greatly reduced.

On the other hand, Shanghai and Hong Kong through the formal "open to traffic" means that the market system, valuation and other factors will gradually tend to merge.

Against this background, stocks as high risk will be sold wildly by the market.