Falling Crude Oil Dragged Down PTA Prices, Polyester Industry Has Turned Around

　　 Raw materials drag down PTA price polyester industry profits turn better

Naphtha and PX collapsed due to falling crude oil, and PTA costs collapsed. PTA price plummeted a while ago, and the price of the main 1501 contract period quickly dropped from 6200 yuan / ton to 5600 yuan / ton. PTA After the slump, market mentality diverged. Since last week, the price declines have slowed down and the overall trend of oscillation has been oscillating.

　　 Raw material weakness dragged down PTA price

Recently, international crude oil prices continued to oscillate downward, but WTI oil prices rebounded after falling below $80 / barrel in the four session last week, and then oscillating at about 82 US dollars / barrel. Currently in the global refinery centralized maintenance period, and the United States refineries to accelerate the pace of maintenance to cope with the upcoming heating oil demand season. As a result, the demand for crude oil is at a low level, leading to the recent surge in US crude oil commercial inventories.

In addition, the market is worried that OPEC members will maintain high output in order to compete for oil market share. It is reported that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran have all expressed their resistance to changing the policy of crude oil supply. Therefore, worries about oversupply and sluggish demand are shrouding the crude oil market, resulting in a weak oil price trend. Affected by this, naphtha once fell to $710 / ton, and the PX price fell below $1050 / ton, right. PTA price There was a significant drag. Although the rebound in crude oil prices has led to a moderate rebound in naphtha and PX prices in recent days, it is difficult to change the pessimistic attitude of the market to upstream raw materials.

At the same time, although the recovery rate of PTA has a positive impact on PX prices, but because of early PX production profit is good, market supply is abundant, and the market is expected to PTA rate of operation is difficult to maintain at a high level. Therefore, the price of PX has only slightly rebounded following the upstream market in the near future. The weakness of the raw material terminal has obviously reduced the PTA price.

　　 Polyester industry profits turn better

The sharp decline in upstream raw material prices has also been given. Polyester enterprise Breathing opportunities. Recently, the gross profit margin of polyester products has picked up. Last week, polyester enterprises took the opportunity to promote sales, and the inventory pressure had weakened. However, in the declining market, the stocking of downstream weaving enterprises is also more prudent, mostly with the use of buying and buying, which is not conducive to the improvement of demand side. If the market stabilizes or even rebounded, it may stimulate a wave of low stocking in the market, and the pressure on polyester stocks will ease further. However, due to the improvement of profit situation, the starting rate of polyester has picked up, and the terminal has been rising. Textile and clothing Will gradually enter the off-season. Therefore, after the short term promotion, polyester products sales may once again become weak, and the polyester industry will still face the pressure of inventory rebound. In the final analysis, the weak terminal demand will continue to be upstream. polyester Price restrains, thus restraining the rise of PTA price.

　　 Operating rate rises to potential negative

The rapid growth of production capacity has met with the poor demand of terminal. In the past two years, the profits of the PTA industry have been poor. In the first half of this year, in order to improve the profit situation, the joint reduction of production capacity among large enterprises has brought a marked effect on the rise of PTA prices, and the PTA price rebounded from May. Although PTA's operating rate has remained low, market supply and demand remain tight, but it has failed to stop prices from falling. Before and after the national day, the PTA business starts to pick up, and continues to rise to a high level of 75% in the near future. Therefore, the supply of the market will increase significantly, thus forming a pressure on the price of PTA.

To sum up, the downward trend of the industrial chain from top to bottom has improved the cash flow of PTA and polyester industry. Although raw material prices continue to fall sharply, PTA and Polyester products The slowdown is slowing down. Therefore, PTA processing loss has narrowed, polyester industry has seen a better profit, profit means that enterprises should increase production, polyester and PTA operating rate in the near future obvious recovery. However, under the premise of no improvement in terminal demand environment, after a period of accumulation, inventory pressure will once again become the main factor restricting PTA and polyester price recovery. Technically, the PTA price is still in short order, and the downward trend remains unchanged. However, the RSI index deviates from the bottom. If there is a technical rebound, it will create opportunities for the central line to continue to sell short.