China Stock Market "Slow Cow" Can Expect GDP To Increase 6.6%~6.8%

The blue book research group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 16, said that China's economic growth in 2016 is expected to be 6.6%~6.8%.

China

It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will fluctuate from 3200 to 4000 points.

PI Book predicts that China's economic growth will be 6.6%~6.8% in 2016.

Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of quantitative economics and technical economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the main consideration is that

We have entered the new normal, the structural adjustment is speeding up, the potential growth rate tends to decline, the global trade is growing at a low speed, the external demand will remain weak, the domestic investment base has been very large, the investment growth rate will return to normal, and the total consumption will remain stable in general.

It is expected that consumer prices will rise by 2.1% in 2016, and factory prices of industrial products will drop by 3.7%, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices will rise by 1.9%.

The blue book believes that in order to cope with the downward pressure on the economy, we should continue to implement a loose monetary policy in 2016 and guide the growth of monetary credit and social financing scale reasonably and moderately.

"At present, we should take the" steady growth and increase efficiency "as the focus of the active fiscal policy, strengthen the direct role of the active fiscal policy in expanding demand; appropriately increase government investment, give full play to the leading role of financial funds in infrastructure investment and the driving role of private investment; appropriately expand the scale of fiscal deficits; speed up the construction of a new local tax system, appropriately expand local fiscal revenue sources, do a good job in the replacement of local government bonds, and seriously guard against the risk of local government debt.

For the property market, the blue book says that the real estate industry, once regarded as the source of overheated economy, will once again become a regulator for stabilizing the economic growth.

But the real estate market in China is still in a period of adjustment, and the real estate downturn will take at least two years.

Real estate investment is expected to continue to bottom out in 2016.

According to the current real estate development rhythm, funds in place, inventory changes, sales status, real estate

It will continue to fall.

The blue book suggests that China should enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, consider introducing a wide range of exchange rate target interval system, cautiously promote capital account convertibility step by step, and strengthen the independence of the central bank, and give priority to improving the reform of the bankruptcy mechanism of state-owned enterprises.

The Academy of Social Sciences also expects unemployment in China's heavy industries and exports in 2016.

For the capital market, the blue book says that the trajectory of China's stock market will change significantly in 2016. There will not be much change in the value fluctuation center of the stock market. The Shanghai composite index is likely to fluctuate between 3200 and 4000 points.

The research group said that from the perspective of market operation, the risk-free interest rate in China's capital market has been very low; the asset allocation channels of large categories are few, and the stock market is a very important choice channel; the scarcity of shell resources and the financing function of listed companies make it possible for them to make themselves bigger by acquiring high-quality assets through the issuance of additional funds.

General secretary Xi Jinping has referred to the stock market's healthy and stable development and financing function for 5 times to protect the interests of small investors.

Senior leaders also pointed out in different occasions that the stock market can not rise and fall.

All of these constitute the driving force for the gradual upward movement of the stock market index.