Many Listed Companies In The A Share Market Stop Announcements Of Fixed Increase Projects.

Since the second half of 2015, the two tier market has experienced several roller coaster prices. Real economy With the burden of capacity, inventory and structural adjustment, many listed companies in the A share market have published a notice to stop the implementation of fixed increase projects under the circumstances of market changes. However, sometimes the end may be for a better start, and opportunities are often hidden in it.

As of May 20, 2016, in 2016, there were 131 incremental plans for A shares to be suspended, involving 98 listed companies, with an average of 5~6 weekly increase. 34 of them Listed company 11 of the listed companies stopped implementing the original plan because of the change of the capital market environment, and the number of shares accounted for 11% and 10% respectively. The proportion of the listed companies was 11% and 10% respectively. The merger and acquisition targets were difficult to meet the purchase conditions, and there was an irreconcilable difference with the target companies, and the plan for the merger and reorganization was halted. Only 9% of the related companies were passively stopped because of the failure of the trial committee or the securities and Futures Commission.

Stop by implementing Fixed increase The reason for the analysis is that the proportion of active halting is more than 70% due to market environment changes and other factors. There is a greater possibility of such a target in the more appropriate market environment, or to find a more appropriate reorganization target when the introduction of a more appropriate increase plan. From the results of the analysis, the six characteristics of the 61 targets in the 20 trading days with the excess return exceeding 5% (the average absolute yield 21%) are verified. It is found that the 6 targets have 20 trading days over which the excess return is greater than 5%. The winning ratio is basically above 65%, and if the added value is less than 3 billion yuan, the winning rate is above 75%.

We will take the 74 fixed increase targets which are suspended from December 29, 2015 to April 29th as samples (remove the suspension, and 61 valid targets), calculate the purchase price from the closing price at the end of the notice of execution (stop the implementation of the day suspension or the non trading day to close at the closing price), hold the absolute return of 20 trading days and the excess return relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (hereinafter referred to as the 20 trading day absolute return and 20 trading day relative return).

　　综合“是否主动停止定增、停止实施原因、停止实施日股价是否倒挂、停止实施前20个交易日涨幅、停止实施日市值、停止实施定增标的PB以及定增目的”这七个因素20个交易日超额收益情况分析，我们归纳出从二级市场的短期投资视角筛选停止实施定增标的的6个标准：(1)主动叫停定增(市值小于30亿的可放宽);(2)停止实施原因重点考虑因“资本市场环境变化”、“方案变更”、“收购标的不达标”导致终止的项目标的(总市值小于30亿的可放宽);(4)发行价相对停止实施日股价折价率：倒挂(总市值小于30亿的可放宽);(5)停止实施日前20天涨幅小于10%(总市值小于30亿的可放宽);(6)停止实施日PB小于6(总市值小于30亿的可放宽)。

The sharp shock of the two tier market has led to the upside down of the underlying stock price of the 2015 announcement of the planned increase, which may be the reason why many fixed projects have to be stopped. As of May 20th, the fixed increase rate of 42% of the fixed targets that had been suspended in 2016 was reversed at the end of the implementation. The discount rate of the underlying stock price which is stopped because of the change of the capital market environment is only -13%, and more than 60% of the underlying stock price is reversed. The increase in the price of the fixed share added to the cessation of the scheme is also up to 56%. Perhaps it is because the stock price is on the verge of being hung upside down that the listed company believes that the established distribution plan is out of date or needs to be reversed.

More than 40% of the targets in the target of increasing abortion due to the acquisition of the underlying assets failed to meet the standards, and the stock price was upside down on the day when the announcement was stopped. Such targets would be greatly reduced by the news when the project ceased to be implemented. However, the exposure of the restructuring motive provided the imagination for future capital operation. Take Deli and Jingui silver industry as an example, the price reversal rates of the two indexes are as high as 37% and 19% respectively on the day of suspension of implementation. However, the 30 of the 30 trading days that cease to be implemented, the excess return rate of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is as high as 25.49% and 23.04% respectively.