The Supply And Demand Side Is Strong, And The PTA Market Is In High Spirits.

On Monday, the PTA futures market jumped to a higher level. Due to the impact of the explosion of the Formosa Plastics Company and the maintenance of PTA's own devices, the price of PTA rose sharply.

Recently, crude oil prices have risen steadily, the cost of PX has been rising steadily, supporting PTA is strong, and in April, the market has focused on overhauling, and domestic macro data has improved. The recent PTA market can be seen as a success.

Cost side support strong

OPEC's production cuts still provide effective support for oil prices, while Sino US trade negotiations have boosted market sentiment.

Oil prices are rising again in the near future.

On the PX side, with the launch of the 1 million 600 thousand tons of Fuhai plant and the 2 million 250 thousand tons of Hengli Petrochemical Company in the first quarter, the price of PX dropped sharply. However, the centralized maintenance of PX in the two quarter involved nearly 8 million tons of capacity.

If these devices are scheduled for maintenance, the PX supply will be greatly alleviated.

So recently, in the raw material side, the support for PTA is relatively adequate.

PTA equipment is being repaired.

Hua Bin Petrochemical 1 million 400 thousand ton plant was restarted last weekend.

HP Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons of fault short stop, plan to restart on weekends.

Hengli petrochemical 3#220 10000 ton plant has been overhauled for 15 days in March 28th.

The BP 1 million 250 thousand ton plant in Zhuhai has been servicing for 3 weeks since March 30th.

The 2 million 200 thousand ton plant of Jiaxing Petrochemical Company is scheduled to stop for 15-20 days in early April.

Yizheng chemical fiber 650 thousand ton plant is scheduled to stop for 15 days in mid April.

Domestic PTA load increased 0.3 percentage points to 75.7% this week.

In 4-5, the planned PTA overhaul in China will involve more than 10 million tons / year of production capacity. Next week, the PTA load may continue to decline, and social stocks will steadily decline.

Downstream demand remains stable

Generally speaking, the 3-4 month is the peak season for production after the holiday. With the support of terminal demand and the pickup of the gross profit of enterprises, the high starting of polyester in the lower reaches of the April can be expected, which will help stabilize the demand of PTA raw materials, but the demand may weaken after May.

From the inventory structure, the current stock days of polyester POY, DTY and FDY are 12.5, 24.5 and 11 respectively, and the inventory of grey fabrics in Shengze weaving enterprises is 34.5 days, which are all in a reasonable historical range.

In the short term, finished product inventory has steadily declined, and downstream polyester load has been running high. The demand side of PTA will continue to be stable, but the risk of falling exports and domestic consumption needs to be monitored in the medium term.

On the whole, PTA still has many sets of equipment overhaul, the industry load is reduced to 8, and the downstream polyester starts up to more than 9. The market supply and demand maintain a tight balance. It is estimated that the inventory will continue to go up in 4-5 months, and the pressure on the cost side will be slowed down. PTA is expected to be strong in the short term, but it is relatively stable on the base, and the processing fee is at a high level.

(source: Guoxin futures, and news futures)