Can Cotton Be Alone In The Nest?

For the financial sector and the people who care about the economy, March 9th night is doomed to be a sleepless night. The international oil price and the US stock market's epic level crash make people stare, the global economy is on the verge of financial crisis. At night, the sky rose the super moon, while Xiao Bian's circle of friends didn't care about the moon.

The new crown epidemic is beyond the imagination of the world and is now accelerating outside China. But before the collapse of the stock market yesterday, the oil war suddenly started and oil prices began to collapse. After seeing the price comparison map of a network of water, oil and drinks, the author suddenly realized that the oil price of $30 / barrel was lower than that of water price.

After the "black Monday", the opening of the domestic market is not too bad this morning. Cotton spinning enterprises have started production to a certain extent, supporting the domestic cotton price. But there are a few realistic situations that may not last for a long time. The first thing is that textile enterprises are generally short of new orders. Not a few. Although domestic enterprises have started construction, the orders for the lower grey garments have been sharply reduced, while the consumption demand for cotton raw materials has been weakened. The two is the mystery of export data in recent months. The Customs has ceased to update the pessimistic speculation of the market. Three, although the trend of cotton market is mostly out of the fundamentals, cotton farmers can still sow seeds on schedule. It is hard to say whether Zheng cotton has touched the bottom of the epidemic.

Since the outbreak of the outbreak, the state has provided assistance in policy, including tax exemption for enterprises, and the continuous increase of New Zealand's cotton market to 15000 tons. However, the cotton market is still enveloped in the epidemic situation, and its performance is still poor. In addition, the price of PTA was greatly affected by the black swan event, which is no doubt a drag on cotton prices.

There will be no eggs left under the nest, and cotton will not be able to stand alone. The negative impact of the global financial market will continue to exist. However, we do not need to panic too much. The price of oil that has fallen below the cost line is cheaper than the water price. It will not always be lower than its own value. After the deduction of time, it will eventually return to the fundamentals. With the resumption of domestic textile enterprises and the resumption of production, the cotton consumption will gradually increase, and we believe that the country will have more support policies. The more time the market is bearish, the more we need to think calmly. It's better to put your eyes farther away, just like the moon will fall slowly last night, and the sun will also slowly rise tomorrow.