National Bureau Of Statistics: The Year-On-Year Increase Of CPI In September Has Expanded, And The Year-On-Year Increase Of PPI Continues To Fall

The National Bureau of Statistics today released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Factory Price Index of Industrial Producers) data for September 2022. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

1、 CPI rose slightly month on month, and the year-on-year growth was expanded

In September, all regions and departments continued to coordinate and promote the prevention and control of health incidents and economic and social development, took various measures to ensure the supply and stable price of important commodities for people's livelihood, and the consumer market was generally stable.

On a month on month basis, CPI increased 0.3% from a decrease of 0.1% last month. Among them, food prices rose by 1.9%, 1.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, affecting CPI growth by about 0.35 percentage points.

In food, affected by high temperature and little rain, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 6.8%, 4.8 percentage points more than that of last month, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.14 percentage points, accounting for more than 40% of the total month on month increase of CPI; The demand for pork consumption has picked up seasonally. In addition, some farmers are reluctant to sell under the bullish expectation, and the price continues to rise. However, under the effect of measures such as the supply of pork reserves, the rising trend has slowed down in the middle and late days, with an average monthly increase of 5.4%; Affected by the increased consumer demand during the festival, the prices of shrimps and crabs and fresh fruits rose by 2.4% and 1.3% respectively.

Non food prices were flat, down 0.3% last month. Among non food products, the price of industrial consumer goods was flat from a 0.7% drop last month. Affected by the decline in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices fell by 1.2% and 1.3% respectively; The summer and autumn are new, and the clothing price has risen by 0.8%.

The service price decreased by 0.1% from the flat level last month, among which, due to the end of summer vacation and the spread of health events, cross regional travel decreased, and the prices of air tickets, hotel accommodation and travel agency fees decreased by 9.9%, 2.9% and 1.3% respectively; The number of local and peripheral tours increased, and the price of vehicle rental increased by 4.0%.

From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 2.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of last month. Among them, food prices rose by 8.8%, 2.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, affecting CPI growth by about 1.56 percentage points. In food, the price of pork rose by 36.0%, 13.6 percentage points higher than that of last month; The prices of fresh fruits and vegetables rose by 17.8% and 12.1% respectively, and the prices of edible oil, poultry and food rose by 8.3%, 7.9% and 3.6% respectively, all of which increased.

Non food prices rose by 1.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, affecting CPI growth by about 1.21 percentage points. Among non food products, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 2.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of gasoline, diesel and LPG rose by 19.2%, 21.0% and 16.6% respectively, all of which fell back; The service price rose by 0.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.

It is estimated that among the 2.8% year-on-year CPI increase in September, the tail lifting impact of last year's price change is about 0.8 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases is about 2.0 percentage points. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.6% year on year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month.

2、 The month on month decline of PPI narrowed, and the year-on-year growth continued to fall

In September, the prices of international crude oil and other bulk commodities continued to decline, the demand of some domestic industries rebounded, and the price trend of industrial products declined as a whole, but the downward trend slowed down.

On a month on month basis, PPI decreased by 0.1%, 1.1 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among them, the price of means of production fell by 0.2%, 1.4 percentage points narrower; The price of means of living has changed from a decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.1%.

The decline in international crude oil prices has led to a decline in prices in relevant domestic industries, including oil and natural gas exploitation, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries, which declined by 3.8%, 1.5%, 0.4% and 0.1% respectively.

Infrastructure investment projects have been gradually implemented, the demand of metal, cement and other related industries has rebounded, and the price decline has narrowed. The price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry dropped by 1.7%, 2.4 percentage points lower;

The price of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 0.1%, or 1.9 percentage points; The price of non-metallic mineral products industry decreased by 0.4%, 0.6 percentage points lower. The demand for coal storage increased, and the price of coal mining and washing industry increased by 0.5% from a decrease of 4.3%.

In addition, the price of agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased 0.8% from 0.2%; The price of power and heat production and supply industry rose 1.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points.

From a year-on-year perspective, PPI rose by 0.9%, 1.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production increased by 0.6%, and the increase dropped by 1.8 percentage points; The price of means of living rose by 1.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points.

Among the 40 major industrial sectors, 30 saw prices rise, 2 less than the previous month. Among the major industries, the price increase and decrease include: petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry rose 17.2%, down 4.1 percentage points; The oil and gas exploitation industry rose 31.1%, down 3.9 percentage points; Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry rose 1.0%, down 3.5 percentage points. The price of coal mining and washing industry has changed from an increase of 8.6% to a decrease of 2.7%, and the non-metallic mineral products industry has changed from an increase of 1.4% to a decrease of 1.8%.

The price decline was expanded by 18.0% for ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and 4.4% for nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, both of which increased by 2.9 percentage points. The price increase was expanded by 10.1% in the power and heat production and supply industry, 7.4% in the agricultural and sideline food processing industry, and 0.9 percentage points in both.

It is estimated that among the 0.9% year-on-year increase in PPI in September, the tail raising impact of last year's price change is about 1.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases is about - 0.4 percentage points.