European Central Bank Releases A Shares Or Welcomes Rebound Opportunities

< p > reporter interviewed Lv Lixin, general manager of XinDa securities research and development center, Sun Fei, chief economist of China capital market limited, and Wu Xianfeng, chairman of Shenzhen Longteng Asset Management Co., Ltd.

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< p > < strong > keywords 1 euro version < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > QE < /a > has direct impact on China Limited < /strong > /p >

< p > although the European Central Bank has lowered the overnight deposit rate to - 0.10% and is ready to implement the European version of QE, its impact on China's economy is limited.

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< p > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > LV Lixin > /a: the ECB cut the overnight deposit rate to -0.10%, becoming the first central bank in the world to implement negative interest rate policy.

The European Central Bank is also ready to implement quantitative easing (QE) and launch a new round of long-term refinancing (LTRO), which is the main economy that continues to launch QE after the US Federal Reserve.

There is room for China's central bank to ease monetary policy, because the current level of inflation is not high and the rate of economic growth has declined. But if suddenly, it will send people a signal of great urgency, and then there will be a new round of inflation, and "heavy income" will make the economy "hard landing".

It is based on the summary of lessons learned from China's past monetary policy.

Now China's economy has no problem in total volume, so long as the economic growth rate is no less than 7% and employment does not have any problems, it will maintain the current monetary policy.

Higher authorities attach importance to the adjustment of economic structure and the improvement of economic quality.

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< p > Sun Fei: the decision of the European Central Bank to implement the negative interest rate policy shows a relatively serious deflation phenomenon.

From the measures adopted by the European Central Bank to stimulate economic growth, it is not a single measure. There are other supporting measures, such as ending the SMP's write off operation, preparing for the implementation of quantitative easing (QE) and launching a new round of long-term refinancing (LTRO).

Since Europe is the second largest economy in the world, its negative interest rate policy will have a certain impact on other economies including China.

On the one hand, in terms of economic and trade, along with the accelerated recovery of European economy, the demand for Chinese goods will be increased, so that China's exports to Europe will increase. On the other hand, in the capital market, some of the funds may flow from the European market to the Chinese market. Especially after the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, the A share market can be invested through the Hongkong market.

It remains to be seen whether the central bank will respond accordingly.

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< p > Wu Xianfeng: since the outbreak of the international financial crisis and the European debt crisis, the European economy has been on the decline and has not yet recovered to the pre crisis level. Therefore, it is understandable that the European Central Bank has decided to implement the negative interest rate policy and will open the European version of QE. It will be understandable to deposit the overnight deposit rate to -0.10%.

It means that the European Central Bank will charge the deposits of large banks in the euro area, which aims to stimulate the increase of lending in European banking industry. The impact on China's economy and capital market needs to be observed from these aspects: first, the status of European economy and capital market in the world.

For now, it is lower than the United States, but higher than other countries.

The two is the relationship between European economy and capital market and China's economy and capital market.

Relatively speaking, the relationship between the economy is relatively close, and the relationship between the capital market is not too direct.

The three is China's monetary policy orientation.

The high level has repeatedly stressed "prudent", which means that the ECB will not follow suit.

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< p > < strong > keyword 2 micro stimulus rational expectation < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > policy effect < /a > /strong > /p >

< p > investors should rationally anticipate the policy effect of monetary policy, finance, industry, investment and administrative examination and approval.

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< p > Lv Lixin: since the beginning of this year, a lot of micro stimulation measures have been introduced. In terms of monetary policy, the central bank has introduced a policy of directional reduction, which has lowered the deposit rate of small and medium-sized banks serving the small and medium enterprises and the "three rural" banks. In terms of fiscal policy, the implementation time of preferential policies for small and micro enterprises has been extended; in terms of investment policies, the scale of railway construction investment has been increased; in the reform of the administrative examination and approval system, 52 administrative examination and approval matters have been abolished and decentralized, and 34 of them are related to investment and entrepreneurship.

High level is a good job.

However, there is limited space to continue to introduce micro stimulus policies. For example, in terms of fiscal policy, in recent years, the growth rate of state revenue has been much less than in the past.

Besides, from the current employment situation, there are no major problems. The wage of migrant workers is higher than that of white-collar workers.

Therefore, we should rationally anticipate the follow-up policy.

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< p > Sun Fei: if the macroeconomic growth rate continues to decline in the first half of this year, and inflation will continue to run at a low level, it is not ruled out that in the second half of this year, there will be some micro stimulus measures in monetary policy, such as continuing to be targeted.

Because this is a precise control strategy to avoid the same kind of shortcomings in the past.

While the real estate market is cooling down, the government has increased investment in shanty towns, railways and water conservancy. Such measures have exceeded the intensity of micro stimulation and will play a greater role in stabilizing growth.

In addition, there is still room for the reform of the administrative examination and approval system. For example, the administrative examination and approval system that has not been applied for 8 years has not existed for a long time, so that the market can decide the investment intention of the enterprise, and at the same time, it will also help reduce the chance of corruption.

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< p > Wu Xianfeng: the implementation of micro stimulus policy has its objective inevitability.

From the perspective of monetary policy, although a large proportion of them belong to "dead money", they do not flow into the real economy. At present, M2 (broad money) is as high as 110 trillion, which is an alarming number. Therefore, the central bank will not put more money into it.

From the perspective of fiscal policy, annual fiscal expenditure is increasing, while the growth of fiscal revenue is decreasing.

From the perspective of industrial policies, excess industries will naturally be compressed and backward production capacity will be eliminated.

The two quarter economic growth may not be the same as the first quarter, but the three quarter is faced with a higher base pressure in the same period last year, and there is a greater downward pressure.

Since the implementation of policy pmission is time-consuming, policymakers will not passively wait for the economic data to confirm that the economic stall is down, and then rush out the policy. Instead, we will make policy advance, carry out expected management and timely underpinning.

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< p > < strong > the main trend of the 3 main trends: /strong > < /p >

< p > in the game where the policy side is warmer and warmer, the loose liquidity will give the market a strong structural trend.

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< p > Lv Lixin: there are many factors that affect the A share market, and these factors are also changing. The fundamentals are not warm. The policy aspect wants to hold the pipa, but the capital side is full of warmth. The net investment has been released to 257 billion for 4 consecutive weeks.

Because there are many factors that have plagued liquidity in recent years, such as the settlement of corporate income tax and the settlement of reserve requirements by banks. In this case, the central bank takes the form of capital investment in the open market, and realizes the appropriate and reasonable capital plane by cutting the peak and filling the valley.

Nevertheless, it is difficult to predict accurately the direction of operation of the market.

It is suggested that investors should focus on individual stocks and invest in themes.

The current theme investment can grasp such two main lines: first, the time of pre disclosure of Listed Companies in 2014 is now worth paying attention to; the two is the central bank's position to continue to implement differentiated housing loan policies, vigorously support the first housing demand, and some real estate stocks with an estimated value can be concerned.

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Sun Fei P: the European Central Bank has taken the lead in reducing the overnight interest rate to negative numbers worldwide, which is conducive to the release of liquidity, and will also promote the appreciation of non European currencies, which will have a certain boost to China's liquidity.

Before the IPO resumption, the role of policy stability was most vividly reflected, especially when the central bank's initiative was taken, and the net investment was released 257 billion weeks for 4 consecutive weeks. The market liquidity easing expectations were further strengthened. The shortage of money in June last year is not expected to repeat itself.

Since market funds tend to be loose, the external environment has many conditions. What is missing is confidence and timing. I believe this day will not be too long.

At present, the 2000 point has strong support, the theme stocks are gradually active, the effect of money making has appeared, and the ideal target should be the industry with stable performance or marked improvement, reasonable valuation, and a certain divergence in market judgement.

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< p > Wu Xianfeng: at present, many people regard IPO restart as a major bad market. There are many reasons for this: first, there is a lack of high-quality listed companies.

Two, there is no sign of bear coming to cattle, resulting in a downturn.

In the big bull market in 2007, so many companies, the market did not fall, that is the reason.

The three is excessive administration.

In fact, in a mature capital market, IPO itself is a very normal thing.

Based on the neutral liquidity slack, there are signs of stabilization in the economic downturn and the reality that the market interest rates have also dropped in the medium and short term.

Mainly select the most competitive or most improved industry in the high growth industry, the new industry and large consumer company, consider the recent valuation appropriately, and appropriately configure the related stocks of the state-owned enterprise reform, and half warehouse operation.

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